Does raising the minimum wage cost jobs?
Studies disagree on minimum wage effects: one city saw fewer hours but steady jobs, while a national look found little change in low-wage job counts.
Covers: Minimum wage increases in the United States and their effects on employment, hours and earnings of low-wage workers.
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The short answer
Evidence-backed AI-prepared starting mapThe evidence does not point one way. A study of Seattle's 2015–2016 minimum wage increases, using Washington State administrative data, found no change in the probability that individual low-wage workers stayed employed, but significant reductions in hours worked, especially for less experienced workers, along with lower job turnover and less hiring into low-wage jobs; estimated aggregate employment elasticities ranged from about −0.2 to −2.0, concentrated on the intensive (hours) margin in the short run. A separate national analysis of many minimum wage increases found the overall number of low-wage jobs essentially unchanged over the five years after an increase, with modest wage spillovers above the new minimum and no evidence of disemployment even at higher minimum wage levels, though it did find some evidence of reduced employment in tradeable sectors.12
- Evidence 13
- Interpretation 4
In brief
A study of Seattle's 2015–2016 increases found no change in the probability of continued employment for low-wage workers, but significant reductions in hours, especially for less experienced workers, plus lower turnover and less hiring into low-wage jobs.1
Evidence-backedA national study of many minimum wage increases found the overall number of low-wage jobs essentially unchanged over the five years after an increase, with modest wage spillovers and no evidence of disemployment at higher minimum wage levels.2
Evidence-backedThe national study did find some evidence of reduced employment in tradeable sectors, so "no job loss" is not uniform across the economy.2
Evidence-backedThe Seattle study's aggregate hours decline partly reflects jobs moving above the wage threshold, so its headline employment effect likely overstates actual job loss.1
Evidence-backed
At a glance
The picture in numbers
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11 dollars per hour
13 dollars per hour
The evidence behind it
6 sources- Other studies and data6
When it was published
Newest from 2022
| Source | Kind | Year |
|---|---|---|
| Minimum-Wage Increases and Low-Wage Employment: Evidence from Seattle | Other studies and data | 2022 |
| The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs* | Other studies and data | 2019 |
| Are employment effects of minimum wage the same across the EU? A Meta-regression analysis | Other studies and data | 2018 |
| Publication Selection Bias in Minimum‐Wage Research? A Meta‐Regression Analysis | Other studies and data | 2009 |
| Does the UK Minimum Wage Reduce Employment? A Meta‐Regression Analysis | Other studies and data | 2013 |
| 15 Years of Research on US Employment and the Minimum Wage | Other studies and data | 2019 |
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What it means for you
Which fits you?
Pick the situation closest to yours. Each answer says what it rests on.
If you are a low-wage worker in a city that has just raised its minimum wage
the Seattle evidence suggests your job is not more likely to disappear, but your hours may fall, particularly if you are less experienced.1
Evidence-backedIf you are looking for a new low-wage job after a minimum wage increase
the Seattle evidence points to reduced hiring into low-wage jobs and lower turnover, which can make entry harder.1
Evidence-backedIf you want the broadest picture of net low-wage job counts across many increases
the national wage-bin study finds little net change over five years, with modest spillovers raising pay slightly above the new minimum.2
Evidence-backedIf you work in a tradeable sector
the national study finds some evidence of reduced employment there, even though overall low-wage jobs were unchanged.2
Evidence-backedThe full story · 2 chapters
01
What the evidence shows
AI summary:Seattle saw fewer hours and less hiring but no drop in continued employment, while a national study found low-wage job counts largely unchanged.
Evidence-backed: Seattle raised its minimum wage to as much as $11 in 2015 and as much as $13 in 2016. Using Washington State administrative data, researchers found that relative to outlying regions of the state, total hours worked at wages below twice the original minimum declined. Part of that decline reflects jobs moving to wages above the threshold, so the aggregate figure likely overstates employment effects.1
Evidence-backed: Following individual Seattle workers matched to counterparts in outlying regions, the same study found no change in the probability of continued employment, but significant reductions in hours, particularly for less experienced workers. Job turnover declined, as did hiring of new workers into low-wage jobs. Estimated aggregate employment elasticities fell in the range of −0.2 to −2.0, concentrated on the intensive margin in the short run and largest among inexperienced workers.1
Evidence-backed: A national study compared the number of excess jobs paying at or slightly above each new minimum wage with the missing jobs paying below it, across many minimum wage increases. It found the overall number of low-wage jobs essentially unchanged over the five years following an increase. The direct effect on average earnings was amplified by modest wage spillovers at the bottom of the wage distribution.2
Evidence-backed: That national study found the lack of job loss was not explained by labor-labor substitution at the bottom of the wage distribution, and found no evidence of disemployment at higher minimum wage levels. It did, however, find some evidence of reduced employment in tradeable sectors.2
What's the right approach to the minimum wage?
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02
Where the findings diverge
AI summary:The studies measure different things, so together they suggest stable job counts but possibly fewer hours and less hiring.
Interpretation: The two studies measure different things. The Seattle work tracks hours and individual employment continuity in one city over two years, and its authors note the aggregate hours decline partly reflects jobs crossing the wage threshold rather than disappearing. The national work counts net low-wage jobs across many increases over five years and finds little change, while flagging reduced employment in tradeable sectors.12
Interpretation: Read together, the sources are consistent with a picture in which total low-wage job counts change little while hours per worker and hiring into low-wage jobs can fall, at least in the short run and in a high-wage city. That reading is a synthesis, not a claim either study makes directly.12
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- 1Minimum-Wage Increases and Low-Wage Employment: Evidence from SeattleAmerican Economic Journal Economic Policy (Jardim et al.)Published Apr 29, 2022Checked Sep 30, 2026
“Seattle raised its minimum wage to as much as $11 in 2015 and as much as $13 in 2016. We use Washington State administrative data to conduct two complementary analyses of its impact. Relative to outlying regions of the state identified by the synthetic control method, aggregate employment at wages less than twice the original minimum—measured by total hours worked—declined. A portion of this reduction reflects jobs transitioning to wages above the threshold; the aggregate analysis likely overstates employment effects. Longitudinal analysis of individual Seattle workers matched to counterparts in outlying regions reveals no change in the probability of continued employment but significant reductions in hours, particularly for less experienced workers. Job turnover declined, as did hiring of new workers into low-wage jobs. Analyses suggest aggregate employment elasticities in the range of —0.2 to —2.0, concentrated on the intensive margin in the short run and largest among inexperienced workers. (JEL J22, J23, J24, J31, J38, R23)”
- 2The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs*The Quarterly Journal of Economics (Cengiz et al.)Published May 1, 2019Checked Sep 30, 2026
“We first estimate the effect of the minimum wage increase on employment changes by wage bins throughout the hourly wage distribution. We then focus on the bottom part of the wage distribution and compare the number of excess jobs paying at or slightly above the new minimum wage to the missing jobs paying below it to infer the employment effect. We find that the overall number of low-wage jobs remained essentially unchanged over the five years following the increase. At the same time, the direct effect of the minimum wage on average earnings was amplified by modest wage spillovers at the bottom of the wage distribution. Our estimates by detailed demographic groups show that the lack of job loss is not explained by labor-labor substitution at the bottom of the wage distribution. We also find no evidence of disemployment when we consider higher levels of minimum wages. However, we do find some evidence of reduced employment in tradeable sectors. We also show how decomposing the overall employment effect by wage bins allows a transparent way of assessing the plausibility of estimates.”
- 315 Years of Research on US Employment and the Minimum WageLabour (Wolfson & Belman)Published Jul 18, 2019Checked Oct 4, 2026
“Statistical analysis of the minimum wage and employment has been very active for the last quarter century, including more than 37 studies of US data since the December 2000 AER exchange involving Card, Krueger, Neumark and Wascher. In this meta‐analysis of the 37 that report results suitable for this technique, the most important finding is a considerable shift toward the origin in the ‘consensus range’: from the interval [−0.3, −0.1] to [−0.13, −0.07]. The minimum wage has negative employment effects, but these have become notably smaller and are largely localized to teenagers.”
- 4Does the UK Minimum Wage Reduce Employment? A Meta‐Regression AnalysisBritish Journal of Industrial Relations (Leonard et al.)Published Jul 17, 2013Checked Oct 4, 2026
“The employment effect from raising the minimum wage has long been studied but remains in dispute. Our meta‐analysis of 236 estimated minimum wage elasticities and 710 partial correlation coefficients from 16 UK studies finds no overall practically significant adverse employment effect. Unlike US studies, there seems to be little, if any, overall reporting bias. Multivariate meta‐regression analysis identifies several research dimensions that are associated with differential employment effects. In particular, the residential home care industry may exhibit a genuinely adverse employment effect.”
- 5Publication Selection Bias in Minimum‐Wage Research? A Meta‐Regression AnalysisBritish Journal of Industrial Relations (Doucouliagos & Stanley)Published May 12, 2009Checked Oct 4, 2026
“Card and Krueger's meta‐analysis of the employment effects of minimum wages challenged existing theory. Unfortunately, their meta‐analysis confused publication selection with the absence of a genuine empirical effect. We apply recently developed meta‐analysis methods to 64 US minimum‐wage studies and corroborate that Card and Krueger's findings were nevertheless correct. The minimum‐wage effects literature is contaminated by publication selection bias, which we estimate to be slightly larger than the average reported minimum‐wage effect. Once this publication selection is corrected, little or no evidence of a negative association between minimum wages and employment remains.”
- 6Are employment effects of minimum wage the same across the EU? A Meta-regression analysisRePEc: Research Papers in Economics (Kučera)Published Jan 1, 2018Checked Oct 4, 2026
“Economic theory on its own cannot unanimously resolve the dispute as it provides concepts within which both negative and positive effects are conceivable. In order to integrate the empirical findings, I deployed a meta-regression analysis (MRA) to systematically review 187 estimates from 18 empirical studies that estimated minimum wage elasticities of employment for countries of the EU. The results show that, overall, there is no practically significant employment effect of minimum wage. Also, no evidence of publication selection bias was found. A more sophisticated, multivariate MRA identified differential effects for specific industries, namely residential home care and retail sector for which the employment effects are significantly negative. The results also indicate that minimum wage negatively affects female employment. Finally, the multiple MRA also investigated whether the employment effects differ across three wider regions of the EU (the West, the South, and the East). The results provide robust evidence of significant differential effects, and show that minimum wage has moderately negative employment effects in the eastern countries of the EU.”
How it changed
Published 1 time since Sep 30, 2026.
- Version 3Sep 30, 2026Live now
Initial Starting Map for the question of whether minimum wage increases cost low-wage workers jobs or hours. Built from two peer-reviewed studies that reach different conclusions: a Seattle-focused study finding hours reductions without job loss, and a national wage-bin study finding little net change in low-wage jobs. No reader contributions yet, so the map rests on two sources with different designs and geographies.
- First published version.
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Open questions
Do minimum wage increases mainly reduce hours per worker rather than the number of jobs, and does that pattern hold outside Seattle?
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What happens over periods longer than the five years the national study covers and beyond the two years the Seattle study covers?
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Why does the national study find reduced employment in tradeable sectors while overall low-wage jobs are unchanged?
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Are less experienced workers consistently the group most affected, as the Seattle study finds?
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