Heat pump or gas furnace: which should heat your home?

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1. 1

   The Future of Heat Pumps

   International Energy AgencyPublished Nov 30, 2022Checked Sep 30, 2026

   “Heat pumps are three to five times more energy efficient than gas boilers, and typically reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20% compared with a gas boiler even with emissions-intensive electricity.”

2. 2

   Heat pumps for all? Distributions of the costs and benefits of residential air-source heat pumps in the United States

   Joule (Wilson et al., NREL)Published Apr 1, 2024Checked Sep 30, 2026

   “Modelling of the US housing stock found heat pumps would lower energy bills for most households and cut emissions in nearly all. Savings are largest for homes heated with fuel oil, propane or electric resistance; results for gas-heated homes depend on heat pump efficiency and local prices.”

3. 3

   Coming in from the cold: heat pump efficiency at low temperatures

   Joule (Gibb et al.)Published Sep 1, 2023Checked Sep 30, 2026

   “Field and laboratory data show heat pump efficiency falls in colder weather but remains well above that of fossil fuel and electric resistance heating at temperatures well below freezing; cold-climate models perform best.”

4. 4

   Efficacy of government incentivized residential building retrofits in Canada.

   Scientific reports (Madadizadeh et al.)Published Jul 18, 2025Checked Oct 4, 2026

   “We modeled retrofit strategies using the Vertical City Weather Generator (VCWG v1.4.9) software. We assessed their financial and environmental viability under various jurisdictions with different economic incentive programs and future energy price inflation rates for electricity and fossil fuels. Our findings reveal city-specific variability in retrofit effectiveness, emphasizing the need for tailored approaches. Increasing electricity rates enhances Photovoltaic (PV) systems benefits but diminishes Heat Pump (HP) financial returns. Higher energy costs make retrofits more financially viable and shorten investment payback periods. While most strategies reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, PV systems are particularly environmentally effective when the electricity grid GHG emissions intensities are high. Building Envelop (BE) upgrades benefit all cities with a short payback period. Despite the economic incentives, HP may offer limited financial or environmental benefits. This study underscores the nuanced considerations necessary for effective retrofit policy formulation adapted to local contexts.”

5. 5

   Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit

   US Internal Revenue ServicePublished Jan 1, 2025Checked Sep 30, 2026

   “The credit is allowed for qualifying property placed in service on or after Jan. 1, 2023, and before December 31, 2025.”

6. 6

   A New Zealand Heat Pump Retrofit Programme: Warmer, Drier, Happier, Cheaper.

   Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand (Taptiklis et al.)Published Apr 6, 2026Checked Oct 4, 2026

   “We evaluate temperature, humidity, electricity use and subjective wellbeing impacts of installing heat pumps through New Zealand's Warmer Kiwi Homes programme. The government-funded programme included provision of heat pumps in already insulated houses that lack efficient heating. Staggered installation enables difference-in-difference estimates of impacts of heat pump installation on living area temperatures and relative humidity, and on household electricity use. Surveys conducted before and after installation provide demographic and housing information plus measures of occupants' wellbeing. Living areas of treated houses experience increases in temperature which are most pronounced around breakfast and evening times, and when outdoor temperatures are low. Houses also experience reductions in relative humidity. Winter electricity use falls in houses that have a heat pump fitted, with electricity savings peaking in the evening. Heat pump installation reduces perceptions of living in a cold house and improves aspects of residents' mental wellbeing during winter.”

7. 7

   Geothermal heat pumps and thermal energy networks: Technical feasibility and market adoption.

   iScience (Simpson et al.)Published Sep 9, 2026Checked Oct 4, 2026

   “Geothermal technologies, including geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) and thermal energy networks (TENs), are gaining traction as methods to efficiently meet heating and cooling loads. Changes to costs and incentives may impact adoption and can help support decision-making in effectively deploying GHPs and TENs. In this work, the updated distributed geothermal market demand (dGeo) model is used to analyze scenarios across the US demonstrating a range of economic potential and adoption for GHPs and TENs. We find that the more established GHP technology has widespread economic potential and adoption, while the newer TEN technology has economic potential and adoption concentrated in areas with dense populations. GHP adoption was projected to 251 GW-th by 2050 with high incentives and tax credits, while TEN adoption was projected at 31 GW-th by 2050. Uncertainties in cost structure translate to large variations in adoption, pointing to the importance of demonstration projects and cost-tracking efforts.”

8. 8

   Heat Pump Noise: Scoping Overview of Emission Characteristics and Systematic Review of Human Effects.

   Noise & health (Kawai et al.)Published Jul 1, 2026Checked Oct 4, 2026

   “A secondary, non-systematic scoping overview was conducted to characterize ASHP noise emissions based on technical databases and literature.ResultsASHP sound emissions are highly variable, contingent upon specific components (fan and compressor), radiation angles, and operating conditions. The systematic review identified 10 laboratory studies, 14 observational surveys, and one prognosis study, predominantly published since 2011. While results indicate a non-negligible potential for annoyance, concentration impairment, and self-reported sleep disturbance, the overall certainty is low. This is attributed to small samples, methodological heterogeneity, and high RoB in critical domains. Preliminary data provide tentative indications that ASHP noise may exhibit higher annoyance potential than road traffic noise at equivalent sound pressure levels.ConclusionDespite increasing research interest, the evidence base for long-term health impacts of heat pump noise remains limited and of low certainty. Future research should prioritize large-scale longitudinal studies and comparative investigations with other environmental noise sources to inform evidence-based noise control.”