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Are we living through a sixth mass extinction?

Species are dying out far faster than the natural rate, and how bad it gets depends on what people do next.

Updated 4 hours ago6 min readVersion 2
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Covers: This page covers scientific evidence on current extinction rates, comparisons to the five previous mass extinctions, and the main drivers such as habitat loss and climate change. It does not cover specific conservation policies or predictions about future human survival.

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Image: Wikipedia

The short answer

Evidence-backed AI-prepared starting map

The scientific literature describes an ongoing, human-driven extinction episode — often called the Holocene or Anthropocene extinction, and sometimes the "sixth extinction" — with current extinction rates estimated at 100 to 1,000 times higher than natural background rates. It affects mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, fish and invertebrates, on land and in the sea. Whether it already ranks as a mass extinction on the scale of the previous five is contested: one review concludes the current episode still falls far short of the devastation of the bolide impact 66 million years ago, but has likely surpassed most other Cenozoic events, possibly excepting the Eocene–Oligocene transition about 34 million years ago, where much uncertainty remains. The eventual magnitude is described as depending heavily on humanity's response over coming millennia.12

What this rests on5 independent sources
  • Evidence 22

In brief

  1. Current extinction rates are estimated at 100 to 1,000 times natural background rates, across a wide range of terrestrial and marine groups.1

    Evidence-backed
  2. The current episode is judged to fall far short of the end-Cretaceous impact 66 million years ago, but to have likely surpassed most other Cenozoic events, possibly excepting the Eocene–Oligocene transition about 34 million years ago.2

    Evidence-backed
  3. Island endemic vertebrates are disproportionately at risk: 3.1% extinct and 34% threatened since 1500 CE, linked to small ranges, habitat specialization, invasive species, overexploitation and climate change.3

    Evidence-backed
  4. Drivers named include climate change, wetland destruction, deforestation, overfishing, ocean acidification, population and economic growth, and consumption, particularly in affluent societies.1

    Evidence-backed
  5. Public awareness is low but latent acceptance is high: 28% had heard of the "sixth mass extinction," 93% accepted it once explained, and 95% attributed it to human activities.4

    Evidence-backed

At a glance

The picture in numbers

Live · updated just now

Global dataset of 31,865 terrestrial vertebrates
  • Extinct3.1%
  • Currently threatened34%
Island endemic vertebrates since 1500 CE3
Nationally representative UK survey of 739 people
  • Had heard of it28%
  • Accepted it once explained93%
  • Attributed it to human activities95%
UK survey views on the sixth mass extinction4

The evidence behind it

5 sources
  • Reviews of many studies1
  • Other studies and data3
  • Background1

Published in 2025 and 2026

Sources on this page by kind and year
SourceKindYear
The Greatest Extinction Event in 66 Million Years? Contextualising Anthropogenic Extinctions.Other studies and data2025
Holocene extinction (Wikipedia)BackgroundUnknown
Mental models of the sixth mass extinction reveal pathways for transformative sustainability action.Other studies and data2026
Global patterns and drivers of extinction risk in island endemic terrestrial vertebrates.Other studies and data2026
Species Extinction, Biodiversity, Human Health, and Inevitable Role of Lifestyle Medicine: A Narrative Review.Reviews of many studies2026

The community around it

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What it means for you

Which fits you?

Pick the situation closest to yours. Each answer says what it rests on.

If you want the single most-cited number for how fast species are being lost

the estimate to use is 100 to 1,000 times natural background extinction rates, while noting it is an estimate rather than a single agreed figure.1

Evidence-backed

If you are asking whether this is already a mass extinction on the scale of the big five

the evidence supports saying it falls far short of the end-Cretaceous event but has likely surpassed most other Cenozoic events, with the Eocene–Oligocene transition a contested exception.2

Evidence-backed

If you care about which species are most exposed

island endemic vertebrates stand out, with 3.1% extinct and 34% threatened since 1500 CE, tied to small range size and habitat specialization.3

Evidence-backed

If you are communicating the issue to a general audience

the survey evidence suggests most people accept the phenomenon once it is explained and attribute it to human activity, so explaining it directly may matter more than assuming prior awareness.4

Evidence-backed

If you are framing the issue for a health or clinical audience

the reviewed argument is that biodiversity decline is a determinant of human health and survival, and that lifestyle medicine could address both lifestyle-related illness and structural drivers such as food systems, transport and urban design.5

Evidence-backed

If you want to know how bad this will get

the reviewed position is that the eventual magnitude depends heavily on humanity's response and how we interact with the rest of the biosphere over coming millennia, so the outcome is not fixed.2

Evidence-backed

The full story · 5 chapters

01

How current extinction rates compare with background rates

AI summary:Current extinction rates run 100 to 1,000 times natural background rates, hitting many land and sea groups.

Evidence-backed

Evidence-backed: Current extinction rates are estimated at 100 to 1,000 times higher than natural background extinction rates, according to the overview of the Holocene/Anthropocene extinction. The same overview describes the episode as ongoing into the 21st century and as affecting a broad range of plant and animal families, including mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, fish and invertebrates, across both terrestrial and marine environments.1

Evidence-backed

Evidence-backed: The episode is placed in a sequence: it was preceded by the Late Pleistocene extinctions at the end of the last ice age, to which human activity also likely contributed, and by extinctions caused by Polynesian expansion. The term "sixth extinction" is used for it, though the same label is sometimes applied to the Capitanian event.1

Participant opinion · poll

Have you heard of the "sixth mass extinction"?

Have you heard of the "sixth mass extinction"?Yes, and I accept it is happeningYes, but I am not sure it is happeningNo, but I accept it once explainedNo, and I do not accept it
Published surveynationally representative UK survey, n = 739
  • Yes, and I accept it is happening28%
“Whilst only 28% of respondents had heard of the “sixth mass extinction,” 93% accepted the phenomenon once explained, with 95% attributing it to human activities.”

From Mental models of the sixth mass extinction reveal pathways for transformative sustainability action., Scientific reports (Shreedhar). The survey asked whether respondents had heard of the "sixth mass extinction" and whether they accepted it once explained, not the poll's combined yes/accept option wording. Shown for comparison; not counted in SyloSpace responses.

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02

Does it already rank with the five previous mass extinctions?

AI summary:The episode falls far short of the impact 66 million years ago but likely exceeds most other Cenozoic events.

Evidence-backed

Evidence-backed: A review drawing primarily on the last 66 million years (the Cenozoic) asks what comparisons can meaningfully be drawn and when Earth last witnessed an extinction event on this scale. Its conclusion: although the question is challenging to address, the available evidence suggests the ongoing extinction episode still falls a long way short of the devastation caused by the bolide impact 66 million years ago, but has likely surpassed most other Cenozoic events in magnitude — with the possible exception of the Eocene–Oligocene transition around 34 million years ago, about which much uncertainty remains.2

Evidence-backed

Evidence-backed: The same review notes that life on Earth has always changed and evolved, with most species that ever existed now extinct, and frames the question as whether human activities are increasing the rate and magnitude of extinction to levels rarely seen in the history of life. It adds that, given the number of endangered and at-risk species, the eventual magnitude of the current event will depend heavily on humanity's response and how we interact with the rest of the biosphere over the coming millennia.2

03

Which species are most at risk, and why

AI summary:Island endemic vertebrates are hit hardest, with small ranges, invasive species and human pressures driving the risk.

Evidence-backed

Evidence-backed: A global dataset of 31,865 terrestrial vertebrates, including more than 7,500 island endemic species, found that island endemics face significantly higher extinction risk than non-island endemics: 3.1% are extinct and 34% are currently threatened since 1500 CE. Their elevated risk is closely associated with small range size and habitat specialization, while biological traits, climate and anthropogenic pressures exert taxon-specific effects. Extinction risk among island endemics is unevenly distributed and taxonomically structured, tightly linked to invasive species, overexploitation and climate change.3

Evidence-backed

Evidence-backed: The overview of the Holocene extinction lists the drivers as anthropogenic climate change, destruction of wetlands, deforestation, overfishing, ocean acidification, human population growth, economic growth and increasing consumption, particularly among affluent societies, with rising meat production and destruction of critical habitats compounding these issues.1

04

What the public thinks

AI summary:Few people have heard of the sixth mass extinction, but most accept it and blame human activity once told.

Evidence-backed

Evidence-backed: A nationally representative UK survey (n = 739) found that only 28% of respondents had heard of the "sixth mass extinction," but 93% accepted the phenomenon once it was explained, and 95% attributed it to human activities. Attribution to direct human causes strongly predicted support for transformative change (β = 0.44, p < 0.001), while attributions to distant and non-human causes reduced support (β = −0.20, p < 0.001). The authors describe this as high latent public support for sustainability transformations.4

Evidence-backed

Evidence-backed: The same survey identified distinct mental models underlying policy support (conservation, market regulation, lifestyle changes and big technology) and behavioural change (citizenship, consumer actions, waste reduction and nuclear energy use).4

05

Why biodiversity loss is framed as a human-health issue

AI summary:Biodiversity loss is framed as a human-health issue, with lifestyle medicine proposed as part of the response.

Evidence-backed

Evidence-backed: A narrative review argues that biodiversity decline is increasingly relevant as a determinant of human health and survival rather than solely an environmental concern. It organizes evidence from peer-reviewed databases, primarily 2010–2025, across seven thematic domains: infectious disease ecology, ecosystem services, microbiome dynamics, lifestyle medicine interventions, One Health integration, behavioural change, and clinical and policy implications.5

Evidence-backed

Evidence-backed: The review argues that the six pillars of lifestyle medicine offer a framework for interventions that can simultaneously prevent and improve lifestyle-related illness outcomes while reducing environmental pressures that drive species extinction and biodegradation, and that lifestyle medicine must evolve from individual-focused clinical practice to also address structural drivers of ecological degradation, including food systems, transport and urban design.5

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Sources

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  1. 1
    Holocene extinction (Wikipedia)
    WikipediaPublished Oct 3, 2026Checked Oct 4, 2026
    “The Holocene or Anthropocene extinction is an ongoing extinction event caused by human activity during the current geological epoch, impacting diverse families of plants and animals, including mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, fish, and invertebrates, as well as both terrestrial and marine species. It is sometimes also called the sixth extinction (though this can also describe the Capitanian). Current extinction rates are estimated at 100 to 1,000 times higher than natural background extinction rates. The Holocene extinction was preceded by the Late Pleistocene extinctions at the end of the last ice age (to which human activity also likely contributed) and the extinctions caused by Polynesian expansion. The Holocene extinction continues into the 21st century, driven by anthropogenic climate change, destruction of wetlands, deforestation, overfishing, ocean acidification, human population growth, economic growth, and increasing consumption, particularly among affluent societies. Factors such as rising meat production and the destruction of critical habitats compound these issues.”
  2. 2
    The Greatest Extinction Event in 66 Million Years? Contextualising Anthropogenic Extinctions.
    Global change biology (Hatfield et al.)Published Sep 1, 2025Checked Oct 4, 2026
    “However, life on Earth has always changed and evolved, with most species ever to have existed now extinct. The question is, are human activities increasing the rate and magnitude of extinction to levels rarely seen in the history of life? Drawing on the literature on extinctions primarily over the last 66 million years (i.e., the Cenozoic), we ask: (1) what comparisons can meaningfully be drawn? and (2) when did the Earth last witness an extinction event on this scale? We conclude that, although challenging to address, the available evidence suggests that the ongoing extinction episode still falls a long way short of the devastation caused by the bolide impact 66 Ma, but that it has likely surpassed most other Cenozoic events in magnitude, with the possible exception of the Eocene-Oligocene transition (34 Ma), about which much uncertainty remains. Given the number of endangered and at-risk species, the eventual magnitude of the current event will depend heavily on humanity's response and how we interact with the rest of the biosphere over the coming millennia.”
  3. 3
    Global patterns and drivers of extinction risk in island endemic terrestrial vertebrates.
    Science advances (Zhang et al.)Published Aug 5, 2026Checked Oct 4, 2026
    “However, cross-taxon extinction patterns and their drivers remain poorly understood. Here, we compiled a global dataset of 31,865 terrestrial vertebrates, including more than 7500 island endemic species, to evaluate the patterns and drivers of extinction risk in island endemics, in comparison with continent endemics and dual-range species. We found that island endemics face significantly higher extinction risk than non-island endemics, with 3.1% extinct and 34% currently threatened since 1500 CE. Extinction risk among island endemics is unevenly distributed and taxonomically structured, tightly linked to invasive species, overexploitation, and climate change. Compared with continent endemics and dual-range species, their elevated risk is closely associated with small range size and habitat specialization, while biological traits, climate, and anthropogenic pressures also exert taxon-specific effects. These findings explain the unique vulnerability of island endemic vertebrates and inform conservation priorities across island ecosystems.”
  4. 4
    Mental models of the sixth mass extinction reveal pathways for transformative sustainability action.
    Scientific reports (Shreedhar)Published Feb 20, 2026Checked Oct 4, 2026
    “Yet public understanding of the biodiversity crisis remains largely unexplored. This article presents the first comprehensive examination of public mental models regarding support for transformative changes using a nationally representative UK survey (n = 739). Whilst only 28% of respondents had heard of the “sixth mass extinction,” 93% accepted the phenomenon once explained, with 95% attributing it to human activities. Principal component analysis revealed distinct mental models for policy support (conservation, market regulation, lifestyle changes, and big technology) and behavioural change (citizenship, consumer actions, waste reduction, and nuclear energy use). Attribution to direct human causes strongly predicted support for transformative change (β = 0.44, p < 0.001), while attributions to distant and non-human causes reduced support (β = − 0.20, p < 0.001). These findings demonstrate high latent public support for sustainability transformations and provide actionable insights for science communication and policy engagement strategies addressing the biodiversity crisis.”
  5. 5
    Species Extinction, Biodiversity, Human Health, and Inevitable Role of Lifestyle Medicine: A Narrative Review.
    American journal of lifestyle medicine (Stevens)Published Jul 1, 2026Checked Oct 4, 2026
    “This narrative review synthesizes evidence suggesting that biodiversity decline is increasingly relevant as a determinant of human health and survival rather than solely an environmental concern. The six pillars of lifestyle medicine, offer a coherent framework for interventions that can simultaneously prevent and improve lifestyle related illness outcomes while improving planetary health by reducing environmental pressures that drive species extinction and biodegradation. The review examines evidence synthesized from peer-reviewed databases (MEDLINE, PubMed, CINAHL, Joanna Briggs, SCOPUS, ScienceDirect, and GreenFILE), primarily 2010-2025, organized across seven thematic domains: infectious disease ecology, ecosystem services, microbiome dynamics, lifestyle medicine interventions, One Health integration, behavioural change, and clinical/policy implications. The review argues that lifestyle medicine must evolve from individual-focused clinical practice to also explicitly address structural drivers of ecological degradation, including food systems, transport, and urban design, thereby operationalizing planetary health principles in clinical care.”

How it changed

Published 1 time since Oct 4, 2026.

  1. Version 2Oct 4, 2026Live now

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Help improve it

The brief is open about what's uncertain. These are the specific gaps that new material would fill.

  • “How current extinction rates compare with background rates” rests on one independent source

    A second, independent source that confirms or challenges it would make this part more reliable.

  • “Does it already rank with the five previous mass extinctions?” rests on one independent source

    A second, independent source that confirms or challenges it would make this part more reliable.

  • “What the public thinks” rests on one independent source

    A second, independent source that confirms or challenges it would make this part more reliable.

  • “Why biodiversity loss is framed as a human-health issue” rests on one independent source

    A second, independent source that confirms or challenges it would make this part more reliable.

Open questions

  • If the current episode has likely surpassed most Cenozoic events but not the end-Cretaceous impact, at what point — and on what measure — would it qualify as a mass extinction comparable to the "big five"?

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  • What is the true magnitude of the Eocene–Oligocene transition (about 34 Ma), and does the current episode exceed it?

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  • How much of the eventual magnitude of the current extinction episode depends on human response over the coming millennia, and what would different response pathways imply?

    No answers yet

  • Why is extinction risk among island endemics so unevenly distributed and taxonomically structured, and which island ecosystems carry the highest risk?

    No answers yet

  • Does the gap between low awareness (28%) and high acceptance (93%) of the sixth mass extinction hold outside the UK, and does acceptance translate into behaviour?

    No answers yet

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