Is there a NOAA winter outlook for 2026–27, and what does it mean for snow and rain?

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1. 1

   2026–2027 El Niño event (Wikipedia)

   WikipediaPublished Oct 17, 2026Checked Oct 18, 2026

   “The 2026–2027 El Niño is the ongoing El Niño event, with its onset declared on 2 June 2026 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It is the strongest El Niño ever measured for its time of year, and the World Meteorological Organization has reported that it will likely be the strongest El Niño on record, with it already being classified as a "very strong El Niño", also known as a Super El Niño. The 2026–2027 El Niño is expected to peak in November or December and last through early 2027.”

2. 2

   Precipitation forecasting utility for proactive agroecosystem management: A case study from the Texas Gulf LTAR site.

   Journal of environmental quality (Schantz et al.)Published Jan 1, 2026Checked Oct 18, 2026

   “study at the Texas Gulf Long-Term Agroecosystem Research site, the objectives were to (1) optimize individual forecast models acquired from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Multi-Model Ensemble and (2) assess the correlation between historical precipitation and retrospectively forecasted (hindcast) precipitation from 1982 to 2024. Optimal forecasts were often obtained from three to five aggregate combinations of individual models that were accurate for most of the year. Seasonal forecasts always produced greater forecast skill than monthly forecasts, and the best forecasts were produced in autumn and spring. Alternatively, when forecasts were acquired in autumn, forecast skill was poorer compared to when forecasts were acquired in early spring, and there were no reliable forecasts produced from 2-month lead times at this site. El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions were, however, accurately accounted for by individual forecast models. Collectively, these findings suggest that there is utility in using precipitation forecasting for proactive agroecosystem management and planning even in dynamic precipitation regions such as the southern Great Plains.”

3. 3

   Identifying key convection-sensitive oceanic regions to weaken the ENSO spring predictability barrier.

   Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (Mei et al.)Published Mar 16, 2026Checked Oct 18, 2026

   “The SPB arises from weak air-sea coupling that limits the growth and persistence of the ENSO signal. Improving springtime prediction therefore requires identifying oceanic regions most relevant for convection variability. Here, we introduce a Sea Surface Temperature Range Index (SRI), which quantifies the spatial extent of Sea surface temperatures favorable for convection. Using SRI, we show that regions exceeding 26 °C in the east-central Pacific and 28.5 °C in the eastern Atlantic during spring are critical for initiating persistent intense convection. The expansion of these convection-sensitive areas strengthens the Bjerknes feedback by modulating the Walker circulation, providing an effective predictor of ENSO evolution. We further develop a Long Short-Term Memory deep learning model incorporating SRI, which achieves higher predictive skill than the average of dynamical and statistical models, especially for multiyear La Niña events. These results underscore the central role of convection-sensitive oceanic regions in alleviating the SPB.”

4. 4

   Financial markets value skillful forecasts of seasonal climate.

   Nature communications (Lemoine & Kapnick)Published May 14, 2024Checked Oct 18, 2026

   “Scientific agencies spend substantial sums producing and improving forecasts of seasonal climate, but they do so without much information about these forecasts' value in practice. Here we show that financial market participants value the production of seasonal forecasts: options traders price the uncertainty generated by upcoming United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Winter and El Niño Outlooks. Each outlook affects firms throughout the economy, with total market capitalization of $6 and $13 trillion, respectively. A 1% improvement in the skill of the El Niño Outlook reduces firms' exposure to a one standard deviation shock by $18 billion and induces traders to spend an additional $2 million hedging the outlook's news. Firms must not be able to undertake ex-ante adaptation that would eliminate their exposure to the forecasted portion of seasonal climate without imposing substantial costs of its own.”

5. 5

   APEC climate center multi-model ensemble dataset for seasonal climate prediction.

   Scientific data (Yhang et al.)Published Feb 20, 2025Checked Oct 18, 2026

   “The multi-model ensemble (MME) technique is useful for obtaining reliable climate information. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) has provided well-constructed MME data and individual model data included in the MME. This study examines the prediction skill of the APCC MME, focusing on 2-m temperature, precipitation, and sea surface temperature. For the overall evaluation of the APCC MME, the hindcast skill was assessed for the period of 1991-2010 for four sets of APCC MME representing the operational model suites from 2019 to 2022. The forecast skill was also evaluated to demonstrate actual predictability from 2019 to 2022. Hindcast validation showed a modest improvement, indicating continuous enhancement. In addition, it was demonstrated that the forecast skill was consistently maintained. These seasonal forecast data can provide valuable insights for decision-making across various sectors, helping mitigate risks and optimize resource management.”