What is the November 2026 petrol price forecast for South Africa?

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1. 1

   Evaluating the effectiveness of neural network techniques in the forecasting of South African basic fuel prices

   SUNScholar (Stellenbosch University) (Kingwill)Published Apr 1, 2019Checked Oct 15, 2026

   “The e ect of inputting the 30 day rolling future contracts for both the closing oil price and exchange rates is also investigated. Overall it is determined that, of the models evaluated during this study, the recurrent network performs the most favourably. On the nal test set, with optimal model and input parameters, the individual observation errors range from less than 1 % to more than 10 %. The average test error of 4.57 % can be a bit misleading due to the observed range of individual errors. Hence it is not as reliable of a forecast as one would hope for. However, the model did prove to have a fairly reliable attribute to correctly forecast the direction of the basic fuel price change. It did so in about 86% of the test data set observations, and was o by only a few cents when an incorrect direction was forecast. It is concluded that neural network models can be used to some degree for the task of forecasting the South African basic fuel price. Such models are sensitive to the amount of data provided and hence future work in this area should prioritise obtaining more data and if possible incorporating additional data sources.”

2. 2

   Time Series Modelling and Forecasting of Oil and Gas Prices in South Africa: Assessing the Impact of the COVID‐19 Pandemic

   International Journal of Energy Research (Chikobvu & Makoni)Published Jan 1, 2026Checked Oct 15, 2026

   “The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) confirm that Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) (1,0,0)(0,1,1) 12 with outliers is the best fit. The analysis shows a significant rise in oil and gas prices during the pandemic, exceeding standard expectations. This increase was due to supply disruptions and the weakening of the South African rand. The rise in oil prices was inflationary for South Africa’s import bill, driven by higher oil and petroleum product prices. The depreciating rand and COVID‐19 increased energy import costs, harming the energy sector and burdening consumers with higher transportation and household expenses, which strained economic activity. The findings provide insights into how the pandemic affected oil and gas prices in developing countries such as South Africa, informing policy development to mitigate future price shocks and secure long‐term energy security. The findings indicate that South Africa’s oil and gas prices are vulnerable to external factors, underscoring the need to diversify energy sources and promote renewable energy to reduce reliance on volatile markets.”

3. 3

   The impact of petrol price movements on South African inflation

   Journal of Energy in Southern Africa (Rangasamy)Published Mar 23, 2017Checked Oct 15, 2026

   “This paper analyses the impact of petrol price movements on inflation outcomes in South Africa since the mid-1970s. The results show that, over time, the direct contribution of petrol inflation to headline inflation has not only increased, but has also exceeded its weight in the consumer price index. In addition, Granger causality tests and the autoregressive distributed lag approach to co-integration testing reveal that petrol prices have an important bearing on the prices of other (non-petrol) commodities in the economy. The results essentially show that petrol price increases had an important bearing on inflation outcomes in South Africa. This implies that petrol price movements warrant special attention in policy formulation and implementation in South Africa if inflation outcomes were to be kept in check. Keywords: commodity prices, energy prices, inflation, core inflation”

4. 4

   The economic consequences of a fuel levy reform in South Africa

   South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences (Mabugu et al.)Published Jun 17, 2011Checked Oct 15, 2026

   “This paper assesses the economic effects of a hypothetical fuel levy imposed by South African provinces. The welfare effects of increasing the fuel levy by 10 per cent are negative but very small. Similarly, the marginal excess burdens for efficiency and equity (poverty) are quite low, suggesting much smaller impacts of the intervention on both economic activity and equity. Furthermore, a fiscal policy reform that raises fuel levy by 10 per cent is progressive as it has stronger negative effects on higher income households than the lower income households. A potential source of instability for the macroeconomy and total government revenue is the negative effect on economic activity induced by the fuel levy increase. The remedies suggested are that policymakers should make tax room elsewhere in the intergovernmental fiscal system to accommodate the fuel levy increase.”

5. 5

   Fuelling the economy: A critical review of liquid fuels regulation in South Africa

   Journal of Economic and Financial Sciences (Mondliwa & Roberts)Published Sep 30, 2014Checked Oct 15, 2026

   “This article reviews the regulation of liquid fuels in South Africa over the past decade. We first briefly assess the regulatory regime and how the regulatory functions have been carried out. We then consider the influence of security of supply concerns on regulation and highlight that it has favoured local refining interests rather simply ensuring supply to local fuel customers. The record of price regulation at different levels from refinery to retail is assessed, revealing the margins which had been allowed through the way in which the import parity price calculation had been done, which set prices that were higher than actual import prices would have been. The article further highlights how regulation has failed to take into account the special position of Sasol, notwithstanding the recommendations of the Windfall Tax Task Team and the reasons why the recommendations were not adopted by National Treasury based on expectations of investment. The case of natural gas provides a contrast, being subject to a recent regulatory framework, and we consider whether learnings from regulation in other parts of the value chain have been used in setting out new regulations.”

6. 6

   The impact of a fuel levy on economic growth in South Africa

   Journal of Energy in Southern Africa (Ncanywa & Mgwangqa)Published Mar 23, 2018Checked Oct 15, 2026

   “Government expenditure is one of the factors that could influence economic growth and it depends on borrowing or on the amount of tax revenue. A fuel levy, as an excise tax charged on petroleum products such as petrol, diesel and biodiesel, can be an important source of revenue for the government. It can, however, be a burden on fuel consumers. The present study, as an effort to address this controversy, used the vector autoregressive approach to examine the impact of fuel levies on economic growth in South Africa. The results showed a long-run unidirectional negative relationship between economic growth and fuel levy. The conclusion was that the economy needs to grow at a higher rate so as to boost tax revenues and public expenditure. Strong revenue collection, therefore, depends on highly increasing economic growth and efficient tax administration. The implication of a growth-oriented tax system is to minimise distortions created by the tax system and create incentives for drivers of economic growth.”