Is sea level rise speeding up?
Multiple independent lines of evidence show the rate of global sea level rise has increased over recent decades.
Covers: Covers observed changes in the rate of global mean sea level rise over recent decades, including satellite altimetry and tide gauge records, and the contributions from thermal expansion, glaciers, and ice sheets. Does not cover local relative sea level changes, future projections, or adaptation strategies.
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The short answer
Evidence-backed AI-prepared starting mapYes. Multiple independent lines of evidence indicate the rate of global mean sea level rise has increased over recent decades. Budget-based estimates give trends of 2.06 mm/yr for 1960–2023, 3.41 mm/yr for 1993–2023 and 3.94 mm/yr for 2005–2023, and the acceleration budget itself is now reported as closed (9528bc48-939f-4fe0-a2df-fd4873842a3a). A separate summary puts the rate at 2.3 mm/yr since the 1970s, accelerating to 4.62 mm/yr over 2013–2022, with human-caused climate change as the main cause of the persistent acceleration (cdd80f41-bf9b-4f24-bb9c-2a47aa074463). The ice sheets are a growing contributor: Greenland and Antarctica together lost 11,309 ± 565 billion tonnes of ice between 1979 and 2023, 84% of it driven by glacier dynamical imbalance (580e18db-ed24-47b9-b742-10b78d7ef8ee).123
- Evidence 17
- Interpretation 6
In brief
The rate of global mean sea level rise has increased: budget-based trends rise from 2.06 mm/yr (1960–2023) to 3.41 mm/yr (1993–2023) to 3.94 mm/yr (2005–2023), and the acceleration budget is reported as closed.1
Evidence-backedA separate summary puts the recent rate at 4.62 mm/yr for 2013–2022, against 2.3 mm/yr since the 1970s, and attributes the persistent acceleration mainly to human-caused climate change.2
Evidence-backedThermal expansion is the largest single contributor to the trend (43% since 1960), but the acceleration has a different mix, with land water storage at 21% and Greenland and Antarctica together at 29%.1
Evidence-backedGreenland and Antarctica lost 11,309 ± 565 billion tonnes of ice between 1979 and 2023, with 84% of that loss driven by glacier dynamical imbalance.3
Evidence-backedHuman-caused sea level rise explains 58% (44 to 65%) of daily extreme water level exceedances over 2000–2018 and has nearly tripled the days with attributable exceedances since the 1970s.4
Evidence-backed
At a glance
The picture in numbers
Live · updated just now
- 1960–20232.1 mm/yr
- 1993–20233.4 mm/yr
- 2005–20233.9 mm/yr
- since the 1970s2.3 mm/yr
- 2013–20224.6 mm/yr
11,309 billion tonnes
84%
84 in every 100
The evidence behind it
4 sources- Other studies and data3
- Background1
Published in 2026
| Source | Kind | Year |
|---|---|---|
| Improved closure of the global mean sea level budget from observational advances since 1960. | Other studies and data | 2026 |
| Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from the 1970s to 2023. | Other studies and data | 2026 |
| Human-caused sea level rise drives 21st-century worldwide water level extremes. | Other studies and data | 2026 |
| Sea level rise (Wikipedia) | Background | Unknown |
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What it means for you
Which fits you?
Pick the situation closest to yours. Each answer says what it rests on.
If you want a single defensible number for how fast sea level is rising now
use the budget-based 3.94 mm/yr for 2005–2023, which closes within 0.18 mm/yr, rather than mixing it with the 4.62 mm/yr decade figure from a different method.12
InterpretationIf you are assessing whether the rise is accelerating rather than just fast
compare the three budget periods (2.06, 3.41 and 3.94 mm/yr) within one consistent framework, since they share methods and bias corrections.1
InterpretationIf you are interested in which physical process is most responsible for the acceleration
note that land water storage (21%) and the ice sheets (29% combined) carry far more weight in the acceleration budget than in the long-term trend budget.1
Evidence-backedIf you are working on ice sheet contributions specifically
the combined 42-estimate dataset gives 11,309 ± 565 billion tonnes lost from 1979 to 2023, with 84% from dynamical imbalance, and is intended to constrain future projections.3
Evidence-backedIf you need to connect the global rate to local flood experience
the attribution result — 58% (44 to 65%) of daily extreme exceedances over 2000–2018, quantifiable at 97% of 519 gauge sites — is the relevant evidence, and it is framed as usable for local decisions and loss and damage determinations.4
Evidence-backedIf you are thinking about the next few decades rather than the recent record
sea level lags temperature by decades, so acceleration is expected to continue to 2050 regardless of near-term emissions, with the post-2050 path depending on future emissions and very deep cuts slowing rise between 2050 and 2100.2
Evidence-backedThe full story · 3 chapters
01
What the observations show about the rate
AI summary:Budget reconstructions and a broader summary both show the rate of sea level rise increasing across recent periods, though they use different windows and methods.
Evidence-backed: Budget-based reconstructions that reconcile observed global mean sea level with the sum of its components close within 0.18 mm/yr for every period analysed. The resulting trends are 2.06 mm/yr for 1960–2023, 3.41 mm/yr for 1993–2023 and 3.94 mm/yr for 2005–2023 — an increase in the rate across the periods. The annual residual between observed sea level and the sum of contributions is only between -13 and 10 mm since 1960, tightening to ±5 mm after 2005 (9528bc48-939f-4fe0-a2df-fd4873842a3a).1
Evidence-backed: A broader summary reports that global average sea level rose 15–25 cm between 1901 and 2018, with an increase of 2.3 mm/yr since the 1970s — faster than at any time in at least the past 3,000 years — and that the rate accelerated to 4.62 mm/yr over the decade 2013–2022. It attributes the persistent acceleration mainly to human-caused climate change (cdd80f41-bf9b-4f24-bb9c-2a47aa074463).2
Interpretation: The two lines of evidence agree on the direction of change but not on a single number, because they cover different windows and use different methods. The budget study's three-period structure is the cleaner way to see acceleration within one consistent framework; the summary's decade figure captures the most recent, fastest interval (9528bc48-939f-4fe0-a2df-fd4873842a3a, cdd80f41-bf9b-4f24-bb9c-2a47aa074463).12
02
What is driving the rise, and how the drivers are shifting
AI summary:Thermal expansion dominates the long-term trend, but the acceleration has a different mix, with land water storage and the ice sheets mattering more.
Evidence-backed: Since 1960, the principal drivers of the sea level trend are 43% thermosteric ocean expansion, 27% glacier melting, 15% Greenland, 12% Antarctica and 3% land water storage. For acceleration over the same span the shares differ: 41% thermosteric expansion, 16% Greenland, 13% Antarctica, 9% glaciers and 21% land water storage. The shift toward land water storage and the ice sheets in the acceleration budget is notable (9528bc48-939f-4fe0-a2df-fd4873842a3a).1
Evidence-backed: For the period 1993–2018, melting ice sheets and glaciers accounted for 44% of sea level rise and thermal expansion of water for another 42% (cdd80f41-bf9b-4f24-bb9c-2a47aa074463).2
Evidence-backed: The ice sheets are a large and well-quantified component. Combining 42 independent satellite-derived estimates, Greenland and Antarctica lost 11,309 ± 565 billion tonnes of ice between 1979 and 2023, with glacier dynamical imbalance driving 84% of the loss and surface mass balance the remainder. The authors describe the ice sheets as a major driver of sea level rise and the largest source of uncertainty in future projections (580e18db-ed24-47b9-b742-10b78d7ef8ee).3
Interpretation: Read together, the driver breakdowns suggest the acceleration is not simply a faster version of the long-term trend: the mix of contributions differs between the trend and the acceleration, with land water storage and the ice sheets mattering more to the acceleration than to the trend (9528bc48-939f-4fe0-a2df-fd4873842a3a).1
03
Why the acceleration matters: attributable extremes
AI summary:Human-caused sea level rise explains most daily extreme water level exceedances and has nearly tripled attributable exceedance days since the 1970s.
Evidence-backed: Human-caused sea level rise is quantifiable at 97% of 519 tide gauge sites and is responsible for 58% (44 to 65%) of observed daily extreme water level exceedances over 2000–2018. On average, it has caused a near-tripling in the number of days with attributable exceedances since the 1970s (8c7fdfec-9a9c-4c9a-b55e-13f6b9ba6f01).4
Interpretation: This matters for the acceleration question because it connects the global rate to locally experienced extremes: the same rise that shows up as a faster global trend also shows up as more frequent days above local thresholds, and the study frames that link as relevant to local decision making, legal proceedings and loss and damage determinations (8c7fdfec-9a9c-4c9a-b55e-13f6b9ba6f01).4
Evidence-backed: The summary source adds that sea level lags behind changes in Earth's temperature by decades, so rise will continue to accelerate between now and 2050 in response to warming already in the system; what happens after that depends on future greenhouse gas emissions, with very deep cuts slowing rise between 2050 and 2100 (cdd80f41-bf9b-4f24-bb9c-2a47aa074463).2
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- 1Improved closure of the global mean sea level budget from observational advances since 1960.Science advances (Zheng et al.)Published May 20, 2026Checked Oct 4, 2026
“Balancing the global mean sea level (GMSL) budget is essential for understanding sea level changes. Large uncertainty after 1960 is reduced by accounting for recent observational advances. Budget closure occurs within 0.18 millimeters per year for all periods analyzed (1960-2023, 1993-2023, and 2005-2023). Trends for these three periods are 2.06, 3.41, and 3.94 millimeters per year, revealing an increase in the rate. The annual residual between observed GMSL and the sum of contributions is only between -13 and 10 millimeters since 1960 and ±5 millimeters after 2005. Further, the GMSL acceleration budget is now closed. The principal drivers for the GMSL trend (acceleration) since 1960 are 43% (41%) from thermosteric ocean expansion, 27% (9%) from glacier melting, 15% (16%) from Greenland, 12% (13%) from Antarctic, and 3% (21%) from land water storage. Results highlight the importance of data processing and bias correction techniques in tracking GMSL and its contributions.”
- 2Sea level rise (Wikipedia)WikipediaPublished Oct 1, 2026Checked Oct 4, 2026
“The sea level has generally been rising since the end of the Last Glacial Maximum, which was around 20,000 years ago. Between 1901 and 2018, the global average sea level rose by 15–25 cm (6–10 in), with an increase of 2.3 mm (0.091 in) per year since the 1970s. This was faster than the sea level had ever risen over at least the past 3,000 years. The rate accelerated to 4.62 mm (0.182 in)/yr for the decade 2013–2022. Climate change due to human activities is the main cause of this persistent acceleration. Between 1993 and 2018, melting ice sheets and glaciers accounted for 44% of sea level rise, with another 42% resulting from thermal expansion of water. Sea level rise lags behind changes in the Earth's temperature by decades, and sea level rise will therefore continue to accelerate between now and 2050 in response to warming that has already happened. What happens after that depends on future human greenhouse gas emissions. If there are very deep cuts in emissions, sea level rise would slow down between 2050 and 2100.”
- 3Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from the 1970s to 2023.Scientific data (Otosaka et al.)Published Sep 16, 2026Checked Oct 4, 2026
“The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are major drivers of global mean sea level rise and are predicted to continue to do so in the future. However, they also represent the largest source of uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise making robust estimates of observed ice sheet mass changes critical. Here, we compare and combine 42 independent estimates of ice sheet mass balance derived from satellite observations of temporal changes in ice sheet flow, volume, and gravitational attraction to determine the ice sheet mass balance from 1972 (Greenland) and 1979 (Antarctica) until 2023. We then use regional climate models to partition the total mass balance into contributions associated with surface mass balance and ice dynamical imbalance. The ice sheets lost 11,309 ± 565 billion tonnes of ice between 1979 and 2023, with glacier dynamical imbalance driving 84% of the ice loss and surface mass balance the remainder. This dataset can be used to track the contribution of the ice sheets to sea level rise and constrain projections of future sea level rise.”
- 4Human-caused sea level rise drives 21st-century worldwide water level extremes.Science advances (Gilford et al.)Published Jun 10, 2026Checked Oct 4, 2026
“The rate and impacts of sea level rise vary considerably around the world, but the contribution of human-caused climate change to increases in local and regional flood risks has not yet been systematically explored. Because such information is critical to local decision making, legal proceedings, and loss and damage determinations, we quantify human-caused climate change's contributions to sea level rise at worldwide locations using budget-based and semiempirical model methods. Results show that human-caused sea level rise is quantifiable at 97% of 519 tide gauge sites and is responsible for 58% (44 to 65%) of the observed daily extreme water level exceedances over 2000-2018. On average, human-caused sea level rise has caused a near-tripling in the number of days with attributable exceedances since the 1970s.”
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AI-prepared Starting Map from live research.
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Open questions
How large is the acceleration itself, expressed as a change in mm/yr per decade, and how consistent is that figure across the budget-based and summary estimates?
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How much of the ice sheets' 84% dynamical-imbalance share of mass loss is reversible, and how does it constrain the upper end of future rise?
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How well do the 519 tide gauge sites used for attribution represent coastlines that lack long gauge records?
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