How does US inflation affect elections and household budgets?

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1. 1

   US inflation rises more than expected ahead of midterm elections

   BBC NewsPublished Oct 14, 2026Checked Oct 14, 2026

   “The pace of price rises increased to 3.7% in the year to September, driving by higher motor fuel costs.”

2. 2

   Inflation (Wikipedia)

   WikipediaPublished Oct 13, 2026Checked Oct 14, 2026

   “In economics, inflation is an increase in the average price of goods and services in terms of money, though it originally referred to the increase of the money supply (monetary inflation) that can cause such a universal shift. This increase is measured using a price index, typically a consumer price index (CPI). When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reduction in the purchasing power of money. The opposite of inflation is deflation, a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. The common measure of inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index. Changes in inflation are widely attributed to increases in the money supply, fluctuations in real demand for goods and services (also known as demand shocks, including changes in fiscal or monetary policy), changes in available supplies such as during energy crises (also known as supply shocks), significant decreases in interest rates set by the central bank, or changes in inflation expectations, which may be self-fulfilling.”

3. 3

   2021–2023 inflation surge (Wikipedia)

   WikipediaPublished Oct 13, 2026Checked Oct 14, 2026

   “Following the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, a worldwide surge in inflation began in mid-2021 and lasted until mid-2022. Many countries saw their highest inflation rates in decades. It has been attributed to various causes, including pandemic-related economic dislocation, supply chain disruptions, the fiscal and monetary stimulus provided in 2020 and 2021 by governments and central banks around the world in response to the pandemic, and price gouging. Preexisting factors that may have contributed to the surge included housing shortages, climate impacts, and government budget deficits. Recovery in demand from the COVID-19 recession had, by 2021, revealed significant supply shortages across many business and consumer economic sectors. In early 2022, the effect of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on global oil prices, natural gas, fertilizer, and food prices further exacerbated the situation. Higher gasoline prices were a major contributor to inflation as oil producers saw record profits. Debate arose over whether inflationary pressures were transitory or persistent, and to what extent price gouging was a factor.”

4. 4

   The Inflation Illusion: How New Zealand Households Overestimate Increases in Food Prices.

   Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand (Vatsa & Renwick)Published Feb 15, 2026Checked Oct 14, 2026

   “Using nationally representative survey data collected in February 2025, this article examines how New Zealand households perceive food price inflation. We find that perceived food price inflation significantly exceeds the official rate, with respondents estimating food price inflation to be over seven times higher than reported figures. Perceptions vary by age and gender: women report higher inflation estimates than men, and perceived inflation decreases with age. Quantile regressions suggest that these differences are concentrated around the median and the upper quantile of the distribution of inflation perceptions. These findings highlight a misalignment between statistical reporting and lived experience, with implications for nutrition, wellbeing, and communication of economic data.”

5. 5

   The political fallout of air pollution.

   Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (Bellani et al.)Published Apr 23, 2024Checked Oct 14, 2026

   “This paper studies the effect of air pollution on voting outcomes. We use data from 60 federal and state elections in Germany from 2000 to 2018 and exploit plausibly exogenous fluctuations in ambient air pollution within counties across election dates. Higher air pollution on election day shifts votes away from incumbent parties and toward opposition parties. An increase in the concentration of particulate matter (PM10) by 10 [Formula: see text]g/m[Formula: see text]-around two within-county SDs-reduces the vote share of incumbent parties by two percentage points, which is equivalent to 4% of the mean vote share. We generalize these findings by documenting similar effects with data from a weekly opinion poll and a large-scale panel survey. We provide further evidence that poor air quality leads to more negative emotions such as anger, worry, and unhappiness, which, in turn, may reduce the support for the political status quo. Overall, these results suggest that poor air quality affects decision-making in the population at large, including consequential political decisions.”