How do US chip export limits affect AI development?

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1. 1

   Controlling For X: Export Controls and Emerging Technology Competition

   Journal of Science Policy & Governance (Nesselrodt)Published Sep 10, 2023Checked Oct 8, 2026

   “The prevailing view in Washington is that the United States and China are in a fierce competition for control of critical technologies of the future. The Biden Administration’s October 2022 semiconductor export control rules target China’s ability to make or obtain the most advanced semiconductors – the foundational components of advanced technologies. It is best to understand the United States semiconductor export controls as a tool being wielded by the US government in a fight for global technological dominance, particularly in the realm of AI. This strategy represents a substantial assertion of extraterritorial power by the United States, increases the risk of catastrophic conflict between the United States and China, and has the potential to backfire by accelerating China’s domestic semiconductor industry development. The United States should consider easing elements of the semiconductor export controls in exchange for diplomatic concessions, such as greater bilateral military communication, and focus more attention on increasing domestic production of advanced semiconductor technologies by fast tracking expert visas and permitting for new semiconductor fabrication facilities.”

2. 2

   Whack-a-Chip: The Futility of Hardware-Centric Export Controls

   arXiv (Cornell University) (Gupta et al.)Published Nov 21, 2024Checked Oct 8, 2026

   “U.S. export controls on semiconductors are widely known to be permeable, with the People's Republic of China (PRC) steadily creating state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) models with exfiltrated chips. This paper presents the first concrete, public evidence of how leading PRC AI labs evade and circumvent U.S. export controls. We examine how Chinese companies, notably Tencent, are not only using chips that are restricted under U.S. export controls but are also finding ways to circumvent these regulations by using software and modeling techniques that maximize less capable hardware. Specifically, we argue that Tencent's ability to power its Hunyuan-Large model with non-export controlled NVIDIA H20s exemplifies broader gains in efficiency in machine learning that have eroded the moat that the United States initially built via its existing export controls. Finally, we examine the implications of this finding for the future of the United States' export control strategy.”

3. 3

   China’s semiconductor conundrum: understanding US export controls and their efficacy

   Cogent Social Sciences (Shrivastava & Jash)Published Jul 6, 2025Checked Oct 8, 2026

   “To highlight the changing relevance of traditional economic statecraft tools such as export controls, the article explores the tech rivalry through three key objectives. First, it analyzes how the dynamics of hegemonic competition between the US and China have evolved, particularly in light of their economic and military dependence on Taiwan’s semiconductor industry. Second, it reviews the state of China’s semiconductor sector and assesses how American export control policies are reshaping the Chinese chip industry. Third, the article evaluates the effectiveness of US sanctions on China, identifying four key ways in which Chinese chipmakers have managed to circumvent these measures. The paper argues that America’s chokepoint strategy is increasingly proving to be a fallacy, as US policies have inadvertently accelerated China’s push for domestic innovation in high-tech sectors. This trend exposes a structural flaw in the conventional geoeconomic strategy of export controls, as global supply chains appear to be less controllable by US-led policies. It reflects a broader strategic realignment with deeper implications for global power dynamics.”

4. 4

   Strategic Stalemates: The Paradox of Export Controls in the U.S.-China AI Race

   arXiv (Cornell University) (Liu & Lee)Published May 22, 2026Checked Oct 8, 2026

   “Export control is a policy and legal tool to protect national interests by regulating exports of sensitive goods and technology to foreign nations. It has become central to U.S.-China tech rivalry, especially in AI. Controls cover advanced chips, capital, personnel, and critical minerals for semiconductors. Since October 2022, the U.S. BIS has progressively tightened restrictions on advanced computing components to China. China responded with export curbs on critical minerals and filed a WTO complaint against the U.S. under GATT. This article argues that while export controls are strategic in U.S.-China AI competition, their long-term effectiveness is questionable. They often unintentionally boost China's self-reliance and R&D. Moreover, overly strict or arbitrary controls may violate WTO obligations, complicating dispute resolution and hindering AI progress. The study further examines legal implications of overusing export controls. It advocate for a restrained interpretation of security interests, arguing that commercial or dual-use AI models and semiconductors do not meet the security exception criteria under GATT Article XXI(b).”

5. 5

   China’s Semiconductor Industry under US Restrictions

   East Asian Policy (DING)Published Jun 1, 2025Checked Oct 8, 2026

   “This article reviews US semiconductor export controls on China and argues that, with a second Trump administration—particularly regarding advanced process nodes and artificial intelligence (AI) chips—those restrictions will tighten even further. In response, China has ramped up investments across its entire semiconductor ecosystem, steadily enhancing self-sufficiency at every stage of the supply chain. Looking ahead, China’s global influence in the mature-process chip sector is expected to continue growing. In addition, it is likely to prioritise the development of next-generation semiconductor technologies while promoting the expansion of digital ecosystems centred on Chinese semiconductors throughout the Global South.”

6. 6

   Throwing sand in the chips: unintended effects of export controls

   Joint Research Centre (European Commission) (Paolo et al.)Published Nov 20, 2025Checked Oct 8, 2026

   “Export controls play a prominent role in the ongoing technological race between the United States and China. This study investigates the short-term direct effects of US export controls on US exports as well as the indirect effects of these measures on the exports of third countries. We collect data on unilateral US measures targeting all exports to China of specific products in the semiconductor production chain, and merge it with monthly trade data on exports of the same products from countries participating to the production chain. First, we find a negative direct effect on US exports of chips. Second, results show positive, significant, effects on the exports of equipment for the manufacturing of semiconductors from the EU, Japan, and Singapore. This evidence is not only suggestive of a limited indirect enforcement of US policies on foreign jurisdictions, but also of the unintended effects such a unilateral policy can trigger.”

7. 7

   Science Diplomacy in an Era of Technological Disruption: The US-China Competition for Advanced Semiconductors and AI

   Springer eBooks (Trinh et al.)Published Jan 1, 2026Checked Oct 8, 2026

   “Artificial intelligence (AI) is a rapidly evolving general-purpose technology enabled by semiconductors with the potential to reshape economies, scientific innovation, and national security. At the same time, intensifying geopolitical competition is driving states to pursue strategic autonomy, leading to structural tensions as they balance interdependence with greater technological self-reliance. This contribution investigates the co-evolution of emerging technologies and global affairs by examining the Biden administration’s strategy for advanced semiconductors and AI in its competition with China. Our analysis demonstrates how great powers compete for dominance in key technologies and leverage technological advantages and control as strategic instruments. We contextualize these policies in relation to the emergence of AI as a transformative technology considered crucial for national security. We also examine how the US-China competition for advanced semiconductors and AI influences the development of these technologies and international relations. Finally, we assess the implications for science diplomacy, and the mutual influence of technology and geopolitics.”