Why is the world facing a diesel shortage and how long will it last?

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1. 1

   Forecasting High Speed Diesel Demand in India with Econometric and Machine Learning Methods

   International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy (Sharma et al.)Published Jan 15, 2024Checked Oct 15, 2026

   “High-Speed Diesel (HSD) has the biggest share in the total petroleum products consumed in India accounting for around 38% of the total consumption. Considering the volatile global oil market and an oil import dependency ratio of more than 80% during the last four years, the probability of supply disruptions is high in the Indian context. As any uncertainty about the supply of diesel can affect the smooth functioning of the economy and may create inflationary pressures. Accurate forecasting of HSD demand will be essential for appropriate supply management arrangements. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) with Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and extreme learning machines is used for forecasting diesel demand in this study. Demand forecasting has been carried out using monthly HSD demand data drawn from the “Indiastat” database for the period 1991-2022. Comparison of ANN with traditional forecasting methods of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)and Exponential Smoothing has also been undertaken in this study. This study identifies the deep learning technique of ANN with MLP as the best diesel demand forecasting technique.”

2. 2

   Forecasting diesel fuel prices

   Illinois Digital Environment for Access to Learning and Scholarship (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) (BajjalPublished Jan 14, 2011Checked Oct 15, 2026

   “Interestingly, most models are able to anticipate price changes relatively well, with crude oil futures-based and time series models correctly identifying the direction of price change 60-80 percent of the time. Clearly, forecasting in periods of structural change is challenging. The research here suggests forecasts based on a relatively short rolling-window framework provide the most precise diesel fuel price estimates which are able to identify the direction of price change with reasonable accuracy. Further research may find it useful to consider allowing for more flexible model specification during periods of structural change. However, particularly in a rolling-window context, this approach will require careful monitoring of forecast performance to reduce the likelihood that large anomalies don’t unwarrantedly drive specifications leading to reduced accuracy. Another avenue for research might focus on longer-term forecasting, but based on the findings here this challenge seems somewhat formidable. In contrast, it might be useful to further investigate the ability to forecast the direction of price change, and to assess its economic value to decision makers.”

3. 3

   Gasoline and Diesel Demand in Europe: New Insights

   Institutional Repository (IHS Vienna) (Pock)Published Jan 1, 2007Checked Oct 15, 2026

   “Abstract: This study utilizes a panel data set from 14 European countries over the period 1990-2004 to estimate a dynamic model specification for gasoline and diesel demand. Previous studies estimating gasoline consumption per total passenger cars ignore the recent increase in the number of diesel cars in most European countries leading to biased elasticity estimates. We apply several common dynamic panel estimators to our small sample. Results show that specifications neglecting the share of diesel cars overestimate short-run income, price and car ownership elasticities. It appears that the results of standard pooled estimators are more reliable than common IV/GMM estimators applied to our small data set.;”

4. 4

   The Biodiesel of Microalgae as a Solution for Diesel Demand in Iran

   Energies (Ghorbani et al.)Published Apr 17, 2018Checked Oct 15, 2026

   “Therefore, the government will need fundamental strategies and policies to face and control the negative impact on the economy and the environment. Third generation fuels, biofuels, as another supplementary approach seems to have the capability to reduce the petroleum requirement. This paper investigates the potential of biodiesel as diesel alternative fuel from oil seeds and microalgae in Iran along with evaluating the policy for reducing diesel consumption. Dunaliella salina as an indigenous green microalga isolated from the Maharlu Salt Lake was cultivated in an integration of an airlift system and a raceway pond (IARWP) to prove microalgal potentials in Iran. Additionally, the natural culture medium from the Maharlu Salt Lake was utilized for Dunaliella salina in order to commercialize and reduce cultivation cost. Compared to oilseeds, microalgae because of their high lipid content have much potential to solve a fuel consumption problem. This paper found that only 21 percent of cultivable land is needed to replace the diesel currently consumed in Iran with microalgal biodiesel.”

5. 5

   LCAs of petrol and diesel

   Epsilon Open Archive (Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet biblioteket (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences)) (ErikssonPublished May 8, 2013Checked Oct 15, 2026

   “Since these studies often use standard values for the fossil fuel reference scenario, there is a need for a thorough review of published data on fossil fuel use in transportation. \n \nThis study reviewed the available literature regarding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy balances in petrol and diesel use and examined possible causes for the differences reported in the literature. This included differences con-nected to the LCA methodology itself, but also those resulting from technical and economic effects. \nThirteen studies were reviewed in order to establish the level of GHG emissions and energy use in the well-to-tank perspective and, where possible, in the entire well-to-wheel perspective. The studies used different input data, allocation meth-ods and system boundaries, but the results fell within a narrow range, since the energy content of the fuels on a tank-to-wheel basis differed only slightly, while the use phase represents most GHG emissions and energy usage in fuel life cycles. All studies reviewed reported GHG emissions values that exceeded the reference value of 83.8 g CO2-eq/MJ fuel suggested in the EU Renewable Energy Directive of 2009.”