Why are autism and ADHD diagnoses rising, and is over-diagnosis a risk?

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1. 1

   Trends in Parent-Reported Developmental Disabilities: 2019-2024.

   Pediatrics (Zablotsky et al.)Published Oct 1, 2026Checked Oct 17, 2026

   “l disabilities in children 3-17 years in the United States between 2019 and 2024 as well as changes in prevalence by selected demographic and socioeconomic characteristics.MethodsData come from the National Health Interview Survey, a nationally representative survey of the noninstitutionalized childhood population in the United States, with a focus on attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, autism spectrum disorder, learning disability, intellectual disability, and other developmental delays. All diagnoses are based on parents reporting what they have been told by a physician or other health care professional. Estimates were calculated overall using survey weights and stratified by select demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Trends were calculated using unadjusted and adjusted logistic regressions.ResultsFrom 2019-2020 to 2023-2024, even after adjustment, there was an overall increase in the prevalence of any parent-reported developmental disability (16.7% to 20.5%, P ConclusionsThe parent-reported prevalence of developmental disability among US children aged 3-17 years increased between 2019 and 2024. These increases could be related to earlier detection and awareness.”

2. 2

   ADHD prevalence estimates across three decades: an updated systematic review and meta-regression analysis

   International Journal of Epidemiology (Polanczyk et al.)Published Jan 24, 2014Checked Oct 17, 2026

   “We identified 154 original studies and included 135 in the multivariate analysis. Methodological procedures investigated were significantly associated with heterogeneity of studies. Geographical location and year of study were not associated with variability in ADHD prevalence estimates. Confirming previous findings, variability in ADHD prevalence estimates is mostly explained by methodological characteristics of the studies. In the past three decades, there has been no evidence to suggest an increase in the number of children in the community who meet criteria for ADHD when standardized diagnostic procedures are followed.”

3. 3

   ADHD and autism at risk of over-diagnosis, says government review

   BBC NewsPublished Oct 8, 2026Checked Oct 17, 2026

   “The review, which focuses on younger people, warned there was a risk society was moving from an era of under-diagnosis to over-diagnosis.”

4. 4

   Stability in attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder prevalence: wishful illusion or complex reality?

   BJPsych open (Khan et al.)Published Mar 30, 2026Checked Oct 17, 2026

   “This editorial examines the current debate surrounding attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder prevalence, the perceived surge in diagnoses and the growing pressure on healthcare services. It discusses the wide methodological variation in recent studies, the limited pool of high-quality evidence and the challenges this creates when trying to understand true population rates. The article highlights the gap between stable epidemiological estimates and the marked rise in referrals, waiting lists, private assessments and prescribing. It explores how increased awareness, evolving diagnostic criteria and improved detection of previously unrecognised cases contribute to the overall picture, along with the role of social media and shifting societal attitudes. Implications for policy and clinical practice are outlined, emphasising the need for efficient clinical pathways, better-quality data and more comprehensive, multi-informant assessments.”

5. 5

   Childhood ADHD and Its Adult Mimics: When First-Time ADHD Diagnoses in Adulthood May Reflect Other Conditions-A Narrative Review.

   Brain sciences (Cuomo et al.)Published Sep 13, 2026Checked Oct 17, 2026

   “The clinical presentation of ADHD shifts from overt hyperactive-impulsive behaviour in childhood toward executive dysfunction and subjective restlessness in adulthood. Longitudinal cohorts show both persistence and fluctuating remission, while birth-cohort evidence for apparently late-onset ADHD is substantially reduced when cases undergo repeated, multi-informant reassessment. Evidence for the recent rise in adult diagnoses is most direct for criterial broadening and expanded access, is qualitatively strong but difficult to quantify for correction of historical underrecognition and remains contested for genuinely adult-onset ADHD. Mood, anxiety, substance-use, sleep, stress-related, and personality conditions can overlap with or mimic ADHD-like symptoms. Adult ADHD is a genuine, historically underrecognized, and treatable condition. Its increased visibility warrants careful assessment, because a later diagnosis based on weakly corroborated retrospective evidence may be overconfident even when it is ultimately correct.”

6. 6

   Autism, ADHD and mental health review: What you need to know

   BBC NewsPublished Oct 9, 2026Checked Oct 17, 2026

   “It contains big lessons for the NHS, welfare, education and employment policies. What are the key takeaways?”