What causes turbulence on flights and how dangerous is it?

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1. 1

   Aviation Turbulence: Dynamics, Forecasting, and Response to Climate Change

   Pure and Applied Geophysics (Storer et al.)Published Mar 8, 2018Checked Oct 19, 2026

   “The scope of this paper is to review the dynamics of aviation turbulence, its response to climate change, and current forecasting methods at the cruising altitude of aircraft. Aviation-affecting turbulence comes from three main sources: vertical wind shear instabilities, convection, and mountain waves. Understanding these features helps researchers to develop better turbulence diagnostics. Recent research suggests that turbulence will increase in frequency and strength with climate change, and therefore, turbulence forecasting may become more important in the future. The current methods of forecasting are unable to predict every turbulence event, and research is ongoing to find the best solution to this problem by combining turbulence predictors and using ensemble forecasts to increase skill. The skill of operational turbulence forecasts has increased steadily over recent decades, mirroring improvements in our understanding. However, more work is needed—ideally in collaboration with the aviation industry—to improve observations and increase forecast skill, to help maintain and enhance aviation safety standards in the future.”

2. 2

   Clear-Air Turbulence and Aviation Operations: A Literature Review

   Sustainability (Vito et al.)Published Apr 30, 2025Checked Oct 19, 2026

   “This paper addresses the CAT topic under two main perspectives: the scientific understanding of the phenomena, and the technological management of such occurrence in aviation operations. With reference to the first addressed domain, the paper provides a comprehensive review of the currently used and perspective proposed methodologies and tools for understanding, detecting, and predicting CAT phenomena. With reference to the second addressed domain, then, this paper aimed to analyze the state of the art and trends in the technological and operational management and mitigation of the CAT occurrences at a tactical level (i.e., while in flight) by the aviation, covering the technologies and procedures implemented onboard and in the ground segment. Overall, therefore, this paper assesses the state of the art and identifies the most promising innovations that promote safer, more sustainable future aviation operations, by bridging weather and climate science with aviation engineering, in the presence of CAT events.”

3. 3

   Injuries Due to In-Flight Turbulence During United States Commercial Airline Flights (2008-2023).

   The American surgeon (Shekhar & Ruskin)Published Nov 10, 2025Checked Oct 19, 2026

   “Reports for accidents with at least one serious injury between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2023, were queried for the term "turbulence" in the probable cause section of the accident report. Data surrounding the causes and circumstances of each turbulence-related accident were then abstracted.ResultsA total of 136 turbulence-related accidents met inclusion criteria: there were 143 serious injuries and 218 minor injuries. Ten accidents (7.4%) had more than 5 minor injuries. Flight attendants were injured in 126 accidents (92.6%). Most accidents took place during the enroute phase of flight (n = 113, 83.1%). Regional airliners were involved in 32 accidents (23.5%), and wide-body airliners were involved in 22 accidents (16.2%). When specific injury data were available, most common injuries included fractures to the ankle (n = 36, 26.5%), leg (n = 19, 14.0%), and spine (n = 17, 12.5%).ConclusionsOur analysis of a nationally representative database of aviation safety data reveals trends in turbulence-related accidents and their associated patterns of injury. Additional research is needed to identify potential solutions to mitigate the risk of injuries due to in-flight turbulence.”

4. 4

   Turbulence and Its Impact on Commercial Aviation

   The Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education and Research (Golding)Published Jan 1, 2002Checked Oct 19, 2026

   “The hazards posed by turbulence remain an important issue in commercial aviation. Safety experts say turbulence is the leading cause of in-flight injury to passengers and airline employees, especially flight attendants. Extensive research into methods for alleviating this turbulence hazard has been continuing for many years. This paper addresses the issues pertaining to turbulence, including the causes, impact on commercial aviation, and initiatives undertaken to prevent turbulence related mishaps today and in the future.”

5. 5

   Air Turbulence Associated with Crew Member and Passenger Injuries on Commercial Aviation

   THE BANGKOK MEDICAL JOURNAL (Suriyawongse)Published Feb 28, 2021Checked Oct 19, 2026

   “Further analysis was performed for special injury cases. RESULT: A total of 43 patients from 8 flights was included in the study. There were 45 episodes of injuries at Samitivej Srinakarin Hospital, with 78% of these being passengers, and 76% of the patients were international passengers. 64% of patients had multiple injuries in all of the episodes. Most injuries were located on the extremities (77%), with 60% of them located on the upper extremities. The second most frequent injury was head injury (47%) and most of the head injury patients were given conservative treatment by neurological sign observation in the hospital or at home. There was no complaint of abdominal injury. From 43 patients, 68% received conservative treatments, 24% underwent operations and 8% underwent general procedures. Total admission was 53% with an average length of stay (LOS) of 7.63 days. Airplane injury cases can suffer from many types of organ injury or multiple organ injuries depending upon their activities during the time the air turbulence incurred. Cabin crew may has a higher risk of injuries than passengers.”

6. 6

   Sources and dynamics of turbulence in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: A review

   Geophysical Research Letters (Sharman et al.)Published May 29, 2012Checked Oct 19, 2026

   “Turbulence is a well‐known hazard to aviation that is responsible for numerous injuries each year, with occasional fatalities, and is the underlying cause of many people's fear of air travel. Not only are turbulence encounters a safety issue, they also result in millions of dollars of operational costs to airlines, leading to increased costs passed on to the consumer. For these reasons, pilots, dispatchers, and air traffic controllers attempt to avoid turbulence wherever possible. Accurate forecasting of aviation‐scale turbulence has been hampered in part by a lack of understanding of the underlying dynamical processes. However, more precise observations of turbulence encounters together with recent research into turbulence generation processes is helping to elucidate the detailed dynamical processes involved and is laying the foundation for improved turbulence forecasting and avoidance. In this paper we briefly review some of the more important recent observational, theoretical, and modeling results related to turbulence at cruise altitudes for commercial aircraft (i.e., the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere), and their implications for aviation turbulence forecasting.”

7. 7

   Norwegian airline passengers are not more afraid of flying after the terror act of September 11. The flight anxiety, however, is significantly attributed to acts of terrorism

   Scandinavian Journal of Psychology (Ekeberg et al.)Published Jun 17, 2014Checked Oct 19, 2026

   “To asses flight anxiety, a six point scale was used, from 0 = not afraid at all, to 5 = always very afraid, and sometimes avoid flying because of that. A 10-cm visual analogue scale (VAS) was used to measure the degree of anxiety. There were 50.8% who were not afraid at all. There were 12 women (5.2%) and one man (0.4%) with flight phobia. However, 22 (4.5%) had cancelled flights because of anxiety during the last two years. Situations that caused most concern during flights were turbulence and fear of terrorism and highjacking. After September 11, 48% were not more afraid, 38% a little more, 10% moderately, 3% rather much and 2% very much. The passengers, however, were not more afraid of flying in 2002 than in 1986. About 3% of Norwegian airline passengers have a flight phobia. Women are significantly more concerned than men. The impact of the terror act September 11, 2001 was rather moderate. The level of flight anxiety among Norwegian airline passengers was not significantly different in 2002 and 1986.”