How does the new UEFA Champions League format work?

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1. 1

   Predicting Qualification Thresholds in the UEFA Champions League and Europa League under the New League Phase Format

   arXiv (Cornell University) (Winkelmann et al.)Published Aug 27, 2025Checked Oct 14, 2026

   “Under this structure, the top eight teams advance directly to the Round of 16, while teams ranked 9th-24th qualify for a play-off round. Simulation-based analyses, such as those by commercial data analyst Opta, provided indicative point thresholds for qualification but reveal deviations when compared with actual outcomes in the first season. To address these discrepancies, we employ a bivariate Dixon--Coles model that accounts for the lower frequency of draws observed in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons, particularly in the Champions League, potentially driven by reduced incentives for teams to play for a draw. We proxy team strengths by Elo ratings and fit the model to different settings. This enables us to simulate match outcomes and to estimate qualification thresholds for both direct advancement and play-off participation. Our results provide scientific guidance for clubs and managers, supporting strategic decision-making under uncertainty regarding their progression prospects in the new format of UEFA club competitions.”

2. 2

   Ranking matters: Does the new format select the best teams for the knockout phase in the UEFA Champions League?

   International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching (Csató et al.)Published Dec 30, 2025Checked Oct 14, 2026

   “Starting in the 2024/25 season, the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) has fundamentally changed the format of its club competitions: the group stage has been replaced by a league phase played by 36 teams in an incomplete round robin format. This makes ranking the teams based on their results challenging because teams play against different sets of opponents, whose strengths vary. In this research note, we apply several well-known ranking methods for incomplete round robin tournaments to the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League league phase in order to check the robustness of the official ranking, as well as to call the attention of organizers to the non-trivial issue of ranking in these competitions. Our results show that it is doubtful whether the currently used point-based system provides the best ranking of the teams.”

3. 3

   From groups to a single league: evaluating competitiveness in the UEFA Champions League

   Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (Devriesere et al.)Published May 8, 2026Checked Oct 14, 2026

   “Recently, UEFA changed the group stage of its international soccer competitions to an incomplete round robin tournament. Previously, teams were divided into groups, each playing a double round robin tournament with a resulting ranking table. In contrast, the new format has all teams competing in one league, producing a single ranking. We investigate the effect of the new format on the probability of competitive matches in the UEFA Champions League. A match is non-competitive if the prize for at least one opponent does not depend on the match outcome, or if there exists an opportunity for both opponents to collude; otherwise, we call a match competitive. Using Monte Carlo simulations and integer programming, we show that the new format results in proportionally more competitive matches than the old format, although it also results in a noticeable increase in the risk of collusion.”

4. 4

   Competitive Balance in the Post-2024 Champions League and the European Super League: A Simulation Study

   Journal of Sports Economics (Gyimesi)Published Apr 25, 2024Checked Oct 14, 2026

   “The proposal of the European Super League and the 2024/25 reform of the UEFA Champions League are both major events in European club football. This study compares the competitive balance (CB) of these new tournament formats with the previous Champions League format. Short-, mid- and long-term CB are quantified by measuring the average uncertainty of match outcomes, the ratio of stakeless matches, and the recurrence ratio of teams in knockout rounds. A simulation method is applied using the teams, their seeding, and Elo ratings in the 2020/21 and 2021/22 Champions League seasons. Results suggest that the 2024/25 reform improves CB, especially in match uncertainty and the occurrence of stakeless matches. In comparison, the Star League of the European Super League concept of December 2023 is superior concerning average match uncertainty. However, it has a worse CB regarding stakeless matches and dynamic CB. Reasons and suggestions for improvement are also discussed.”

5. 5

   UEFA Champions League New Format: Discriminant Analysis of Match Performance Indicators Differentiating Direct Qualifiers, Play-Off Qualifiers, and Eliminated Teams in the League Phase

   Avrasya Spor Bilimleri ve Eğitim Dergisi (Kilci et al.)Published Mar 25, 2026Checked Oct 14, 2026

   “Teams were divided into three groups: direct qualifiers, play-off qualifiers, and teams eliminated from the tournament. Technical and tactical performance indicators were obtained from the OPTA database, transferred to the SPSS 27 program, and separate discriminant analysis was applied for each season to determine the distinguishing variables between the groups. According to the findings, in both seasons, the variable of teams scoring the first goal in the match was determined to be the performance indicator with the highest discriminative power between the groups. In the 2024/2025 season, the number of shots on target also emerged as an important distinguishing variable, while in the 2025/2026 season, the market value of the team roster and the number of fouls committed were among the determining factors. The correct classification rates of the discriminant functions were calculated as 84.4% and 83.3%, respectively. In conclusion, it can be said that the key factors determining success in the new league format are early scoring superiority, offensive efficiency, squad quality, and disciplined play.”