How does Amazon deforestation affect global climate change?

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1. 1

   Annual Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in the Amazon Basin between 2000 and 2010

   PLoS ONE (Song et al.)Published May 7, 2015Checked Oct 17, 2026

   “Across the study area, the average deforestation and associated carbon emissions were estimated to be 1.59 ± 0.25 M ha•yr(-1) and 0.18 ± 0.07 Pg C•yr(-1) respectively, with substantially different trends and inter-annual variability in different regions. Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon increased between 2001 and 2004 and declined substantially afterwards, whereas deforestation in the Bolivian Amazon, the Colombian Amazon, and the Peruvian Amazon increased over the study period. The average carbon density of lost forests after 2005 was 130 Mg C•ha(-1), ~11% lower than the average carbon density of remaining forests in year 2010 (144 Mg C•ha(-1)). Moreover, the average carbon density of cleared forests increased at a rate of 7 Mg C•ha(-1)•yr(-1) from 2005 to 2010, suggesting that deforestation has been progressively encroaching into high-biomass lands in the Amazon basin. Spatially explicit, annual deforestation and emission estimates like the ones derived in this study are useful for setting baselines for REDD+ and other emission mitigation programs, and for evaluating the performance of such efforts.”

2. 2

   Deforestation-induced climate change reduces carbon storage in remaining tropical forests

   Nature Communications (Li et al.)Published Apr 12, 2022Checked Oct 17, 2026

   “Biophysical effects from deforestation have the potential to amplify carbon losses but are often neglected in carbon accounting systems. Here we use both Earth system model simulations and satellite-derived estimates of aboveground biomass to assess losses of vegetation carbon caused by the influence of tropical deforestation on regional climate across different continents. In the Amazon, warming and drying arising from deforestation result in an additional 5.1 ± 3.7% loss of aboveground biomass. Biophysical effects also amplify carbon losses in the Congo (3.8 ± 2.5%) but do not lead to significant additional carbon losses in tropical Asia due to its high levels of annual mean precipitation. These findings indicate that tropical forests may be undervalued in carbon accounting systems that neglect climate feedbacks from surface biophysical changes and that the positive carbon-climate feedback from deforestation-driven climate change is higher than the feedback originating from fossil fuel emissions.”

3. 3

   21st Century drought-related fires counteract the decline of Amazon deforestation carbon emissions

   Nature Communications (Aragão et al.)Published Feb 1, 2018Checked Oct 17, 2026

   “Tropical carbon emissions are largely derived from direct forest clearing processes. Yet, emissions from drought-induced forest fires are, usually, not included in national-level carbon emission inventories. Here we examine Brazilian Amazon drought impacts on fire incidence and associated forest fire carbon emissions over the period 2003–2015. We show that despite a 76% decline in deforestation rates over the past 13 years, fire incidence increased by 36% during the 2015 drought compared to the preceding 12 years. The 2015 drought had the largest ever ratio of active fire counts to deforestation, with active fires occurring over an area of 799,293 km 2 . Gross emissions from forest fires (989 ± 504 Tg CO 2 year −1 ) alone are more than half as great as those from old-growth forest deforestation during drought years. We conclude that carbon emission inventories intended for accounting and developing policies need to take account of substantial forest fire emissions not associated to the deforestation process.”

4. 4

   Boosted carbon emissions from Amazon deforestation

   Geophysical Research Letters (Loarie et al.)Published Jul 1, 2009Checked Oct 17, 2026

   “Standing biomass is a major, often poorly quantified determinate of carbon losses from land clearing. We analyzed maps from the 2001–2007 PRODES deforestation time series with recent regional pre‐deforestation aboveground biomass estimates to calculate carbon emission trends for the Brazilian Amazon basin. Although the annual rate of deforestation has not changed significantly since the 1990s (ANOVA, p = 0.3), the aboveground biomass lost per unit of forest cleared increased from 2001 to 2007 (183 to 201 Mg C ha−1; slope of regression significant: p < 0.01). Remaining unprotected forests harbor significantly higher aboveground biomass still, averaging 231 Mg C ha−1. This difference is large enough that, even if the annual area deforested remains unchanged, future clearing will increase regional emissions by ∼0.04 Pg C yr−1 – a ∼25% increase over 2001–2007 annual carbon emissions. These results suggest increased climate risk from future deforestation, but highlight opportunities through reductions in deforestation and forest degradation (REDD).”

5. 5

   Decadal sink-source shifts of forest aboveground carbon since 1988.

   Nature communications (Qian et al.)Published Jul 30, 2026Checked Oct 17, 2026

   “Forest ecosystems are vital to the global carbon cycle, yet their long-term aboveground carbon (AGC) dynamics remain uncertain. Here, we integrate multi-source satellite observations with probabilistic deep learning models to reconstruct a harmonized, uncertainty-aware global forest AGC record from 1988 to 2021 at 0.25∘. We find that, although global forests sequestered 6.2 PgC, moist tropical and boreal forests have progressively transitioned toward carbon sources since the early 2000s. Tropical AGC variability became increasingly negatively correlated with atmospheric CO2 growth rates (r = - 0.63 in 2011-2021), suggesting tropical forests increasingly modulate the global carbon cycle. In the Brazilian Amazon, the contribution of intact forests to the year-to-year variations in AGC losses increased from 33% in the 1990s to 76% in the 2010s. Our findings highlight the vulnerability of carbon stocks in key biomes and provide a benchmark to track emerging sink-source shifts under anthropogenic climate change.”

6. 6

   National pathways of land-use CO₂ emissions in the 21st century.

   Nature communications (Zhang et al.)Published Jun 24, 2026Checked Oct 17, 2026

   “Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) is a major source of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, yet projections remain scarce. Here, we use the reduced-complexity Earth system model OSCAR to generate national LULCC carbon emission trajectories through 2100, across 150 socioeconomic and policy-relevant scenarios. Deforestation and forest regrowth dominate variability in LULCC carbon emission, with policy timing and ambition exerting strong control. Ending gross deforestation by 2030 yields large, persistent removals (about -30 Pg C by 2100), whereas net forest area balance still emits 4-9 Pg C. The strongest sinks are projected to emerge in China and Indonesia, while Brazil and the Democratic Republic of the Congo dominate global sources. The accompanying open dataset enables country-level scenario assembly and policy evaluation. Our findings underscore that early and ambitious land governance, particularly in tropical regions, is essential for transforming the land sector into a durable carbon sink aligned with global temperature goals.”