Five ways El Niño is affecting the weather around the world

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1. 1

   2026–2027 El Niño event (Wikipedia)

   WikipediaChecked Oct 20, 2026

   “The 2026–2027 El Niño is the ongoing El Niño event, with its onset declared on 2 June 2026 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It is the strongest El Niño ever measured for its time of year, and the World Meteorological Organization has reported that it will likely be the strongest El Niño on record, with it already being classified as a "very strong El Niño", also known as a Super El Niño. The 2026–2027 El Niño is expected to peak in November or December and last through early 2027.”

2. 2

   Five ways El Niño is affecting the weather around the world

   BBC NewsPublished Oct 19, 2026Checked Oct 20, 2026

   “Wildfires have caused thick haze on the streets in Indonesia this month El Niño has been strengthening for several months now and is already having a significant impact on global weather patterns. Countries including Indonesia, India and the United States have been experiencing droughts, floods and heatwaves in line with projections about how extreme weather events will be supercharged by the phenomenon. The World Meteorological Agency says the record-breaking El Niño will strengthen further and persist until at least 2027. Here are five ways its impact is already being felt around the world. Several regions around the world are already experiencing anticipated El Niño impacts Indonesia, which typically trends drier and hotter in El Niño years, is battling its worst wildfire season since 2015. This year, since January, at least 895,657 hectares of land – nearly six times the size of Greater London – have been burned. This is more than twice the area burned last year without the influence of El Niño. The wildfires have led to school closures and an increase in hospital admissions across Indonesia. Millions of people in Sumatra and Kalimantan have been exposed to toxic haze from the fires and around 175,000 people have suffered from respiratory illness. More than 40,000 cases – which range from coughs to bronchitis and more serious conditions like pneumonia – involve toddlers.”

3. 3

   Rising dengue risk with increasing El Niño-Southern Oscillation amplitude and teleconnections.

   Nature communications (Tian et al.)Published Sep 29, 2025Checked Oct 20, 2026

   “By incorporating reported dengue cases and climate data from 57 countries across the Americas and Asia from 1980 to 2024, we unpacked the global climate teleconnection and quantifying its impact on dengue cases. We revealed that the heterogeneity in the association between global climate variability and dengue cases across regions is affected by the strength and types of global climate teleconnections with temperature and precipitation. By controlling for the heterogeneity, 63% of the variation in dengue cases can be attributed to El Niño-Southern Oscillation fluctuations, with higher values in endemic regions. The 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16, and 2023-24 El Niño events were estimated to have induced an additional 0.2, 1.4, 4.1, and 9.6 million dengue cases, respectively, over regular seasonal patterns. Due to human-induced warming, El Niño events and teleconnections may cause a 39.0-81.7% increase in cumulative cases in 2020-2099. Our findings quantify the association between global climate variability and dengue epidemics and caution about the potential future risk.”

4. 4

   ENSO Impact on Global Chikungunya Virus Transmission, 2008-2024: A Multi-Country Distributed-Lag Time-Series Analysis.

   Viruses (Shan et al.)Published Aug 21, 2026Checked Oct 20, 2026

   “We compiled annual national and subnational chikungunya case data (2008-2024), quantified ENSO-climate teleconnections using the E-index (eastern Pacific El Niño) and C-index (central Pacific La Niña), and applied distributed-lag time-series models to assess the teleconnection-mediated impact of ENSO on chikungunya incidence. We further projected future risk burden under climate change scenarios. Modelling shows that El Niño increased chikungunya risk after a 2-year lag (cumulative relative risk [CRR] = 1.40, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.85), while La Niña suppressed it (CRR = 0.09, 95% CI: 0.07-0.13). Temperature teleconnections were the dominant modifier of spatial heterogeneity in effects. Under all scenarios, El Niño-driven warming led to positive median excess cases, the highest under SSP2-4.5, whereas La Niña-driven changes projected smaller, highly uncertain reductions. ENSO influences chikungunya transmission through asymmetric and spatially heterogeneous teleconnection pathways. Integrating ENSO forecasts into surveillance efforts has the potential to enhance preparedness in climate-sensitive regions.”

5. 5

   Intensification and spatial shifts of heatwave hotspot across India under climate and ENSO influences with health risk assessment.

   Scientific reports (Banerjee et al.)Published Feb 12, 2026Checked Oct 20, 2026

   “From 1981 to 2020, India’s average summer Tmax increased by 1.0 ± 0.12 °C, primarily driven by global warming, resulting in a higher frequency, duration, and extent of extreme HWs. Notably, the impact of El Niño has amplified this trend, with average summer Tmax increasing by 1.03 ± 0.44 °C, compared to a 0.77 ± 0.20 °C increase during Neutral ENSO conditions from the 1981–2000 period to the 2001–2020 period. A HW hotspot index (HHI) is introduced to identify the most vulnerable HW-prone regions, evaluated using satellite-based NDVI and LST data, indicating around 1.5 times increase in the spatial extent of HW hotspots between 1981–2000 and 2001–2020. Based on the HW health risk analysis, the central plains, the southeastern coast, parts of western India, and Gangetic West Bengal, along with certain areas in the central Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) region, were identified as the most at risk under the current scenario (2011–2020). This information enables informed decision-making and the implementation of measures for adaptation and mitigation.”

6. 6

   El Niño–Southern Oscillation (Wikipedia)

   WikipediaChecked Oct 20, 2026

   “El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular pattern, but do have some appearance of cycles. The occurrence of ENSO is not easily predictable. It affects the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics, and has links (teleconnections) to higher-latitude regions of the world. The warming phase of the sea surface temperature is known as "El Niño" and the cooling phase as "La Niña". The Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric oscillation, which is coupled with the sea temperature change. El Niño is associated with higher than normal sea level air pressure over Indonesia and Australia, and across the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean. La Niña has roughly the reverse pattern: high pressure over the central and eastern Pacific and lower pressure through much of the rest of the tropics and subtropics. The two phenomena typically last approximately one year each and typically occur every two to seven years with varying intensity, with neutral periods of lower intensity interspersed.”