Are gasoline prices falling in the Philippines in October 2026?

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1. 1

   The Impact of Russia–Ukraine Conflict on the Crude Oil Prices

   International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy (Imeri et al.)Published Feb 8, 2026Checked Oct 16, 2026

   “This paper investigates the properties of the crude oil prices in the context of the Ukraine- Russia conflict by using statistical techniques based on long memory and fractional integration. In order to understand the volatility of West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices, data from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for the period September 12, 2012 to September 12, 2022 are used. The results using unit root tests indicate nonstationarity I(1) for the whole sample period but also for the two subsamples created by the war. Additionally, the findings through ARFIMA approach for the whole period as well as pre-Russia-Ukraine war period confirm mean reversion and transitory shock, whereas for the period from the start of Russia-Ukraine war, the shock in crude oil prices is expected to be permanent. There is a need for inter-governmental cooperation in keeping the oil price at its normal value.”

2. 2

   The Price of Isolation: Sanctions, Supply Shocks, and Price Discovery Dynamics in Russia’s Crude Oil Market

   International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy (Wieland)Published Jul 5, 2026Checked Oct 16, 2026

   “The Sanctions Proxy dominates information shares (22.4%), followed by OPEC+ supply (19.8%), RUB/USD exchange rate (17.3%), and CBR Key Rate (14.7%). A stark absorption asymmetry emerges: OPEC+ quota decisions are priced within 3.8 trading days, whereas sanctions enforcement shocks persist for 14.7 days. IV/GMM noise-robust bias correction reveals a +63.7% OLS underestimate for the Sanctions Proxy, confirming that standard models systematically misattribute shadow fleet friction costs as informational absence. Shadow fleet logistics costs reached $773 million (6.7-8.1% of cargo value) in early 2026. The Urals-Brent discount is projected at $22/bbl for Q2 2026, reflecting a structural isolation premium that implies annual revenue losses of $7-12 billion. Policy implications highlight benchmark standardisation, intensified OPEC+ engagement, and accelerated technology import substitution as priority responses.”

3. 3

   Macroeconomic Prospects of the Philippines in 2025–2026: Restoring Confidence amid Glocal Transitions

   Research paper (Rivera et al.)Published Dec 3, 2025Checked Oct 16, 2026

   “According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, the economy expanded by 5.7 percent in 2024, driven by a continued recovery in industry and services, while headline inflation averaged 3.2 percent, well within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ target range of 2 percent to 4 percent. Building on these results, forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are extended, examining potential turning points in output and price movements amid emerging risks. In addition to domestic indicators, the flow of funds from abroad, labor market developments, public spending efficiency, and business and consumer expectations are analyzed as proxies for the economy’s underlying resilience. Continuing the themes of earlier EPM editions, persistent and new vulnerabilities are emphasized, including inflation volatility, exchange rate fluctuations, fiscal constraints, and external shocks such as US tariff escalation, supply-chain realignments under the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, and climate-related disruptions. These factors will determine the country’s ability to sustain inclusive, resilient, and investment-led growth in the coming years.”

4. 4

   The petroleum market: The ongoing oil price “shock” and the next “counter-shock”

   Économie internationale (Lescaroux)Published Nov 28, 2010Checked Oct 16, 2026

   “Résumé Cet article montre que le marché du pétrole connaît naturellement une alternance de périodes de turbulences et de stabilité due aux faibles élasticités-prix de l’offre et de la demande ; celles-ci sont responsables du fait qu’ « il y a toujours trop ou trop peu de pétrole » (Watkins, 1937). L’article propose une explication élémentaire pour la hausse tant du niveau que de la volatilité des prix du brut au cours des années récentes. Malgré la récession de 2009, il y a toujours « trop peu de pétrole » ; par conséquent, le prix du pétrole devrait à moyen terme atteindre de nouveaux records. Par ailleurs, les simulations montrent que des capacités excédentaires devraient être rétablies à long terme, il y a aurait par conséquent de nouveau « trop de pétrole » , d’où une correction à la baisse sur le prix nominal du brut, qui entrerait dans une période de stabilité, une fois réalisés les investissements nécessaires. Classification JEL : D4 ; E37 ; Q41.”

5. 5

   Philippines

   IMF Staff Country Reports (Dept)Published Dec 1, 2023Checked Oct 16, 2026

   “Growth is projected to rebound in the second half of 2023 and 2024 while inflation is expected to gradually approach the target. Risks to the growth outlook are tilted to the downside, mainly stemming from persistently high inflation, globally and locally, and a highly uncertain global economic and geopolitical environment. Upside risks to the inflation outlook, include higher commodity prices and potential second-round effects. Policy priorities should include anchoring inflation expectations, maintaining debt sustainability, increasing economic and financial resilience to adverse shocks, supporting the investment recovery, and implementing reforms to raise productivity growth and the standard of living for all Filipinos. Sustained efforts to reduce infrastructure and education gaps, promote foreign investment, strengthen governance, and harness the digital economy can boost growth potential and inclusivity. These reforms should be complemented by efforts to further strengthen skills and the social safety net while addressing climate risks through a multipronged approach.”

6. 6

   The Impact of Lower Gas and Oil Prices on Global Gas and LNG Markets

   Research paper (Rogers)Published Jul 1, 2015Checked Oct 16, 2026

   “The aftermath of warmer than normal 2013/2014 winters in Europe and Asia, evidence of slowing Asian LNG demand growth through 2014 and the collapse of the oil price in late 2014 has resulted in a painful ‘new normal’ for key players in the global gas system, specifically LNG project investors and Russia/Gazprom. At one level […]”

7. 7

   Evolution of spatial structure, passing network patterns, and gameplay intensity in elite women's and men's football (2020-2025).

   Scientific reports (Carstens et al.)Published May 14, 2026Checked Oct 18, 2026

   “Drawing on event-level records for 13,018 matches across ten top-tier men's and women's leagues in England, Spain, Germany, Italy, and the United States (2020-2025), we quantify match dynamics through two complementary lenses: conventional performance statistics and pitch-passing networks that track ball movement across spatial regions of the field. Between 2020 and 2025, average passing volume, pass accuracy, and the proportion of passes made under pressure all increased, with the largest year-on-year changes occurring in women's competitions. Network measures reveal that normalized outreach decreased, indicating teams increasingly concentrate ball circulation into shorter-range passing connections rather than wide spatial distribution. These trends are consistent across countries and tiers, yet persistent national differences indicate that stylistic diversity remains. Notably, women's competitions exhibit stronger rates of change across most metrics, consistent with an accelerating professionalization, while the systematic decline in network outreach across all competitions is consistent with a sport-wide shift toward shorter, more concentrated passing structures.”

8. 8

   Are Counterattacks More Effective than Positional Attacks in Soccer? A Comparative Analysis of Influencing Factors.

   Journal of human kinetics (Prieto-González et al.)Published Sep 23, 2025Checked Oct 18, 2026

   “These variables included team performance metrics and tactical indicators. Counterattacks were more efficient than positional attacks across the three leagues, and top teams performed better than intermediate and bottom teams. Serie A showed the highest efficiency. In La Liga and the Premier League, positional attack efficiency was linked to right flank attacks, while counterattacks relied on central-zone efficiency. Serie A showed similar patterns, with the right flank contributing most to positional attack efficiency and central-zone efficiency being the strongest predictor of counterattack efficiency. The superiority of counterattacks over positional attacks underscores the importance of tactical precision and situational execution. Top teams excelled in both strategies, emphasizing the need for efficiency. The findings highlight the significance of adapting strategies to each league's unique trends. Coaches can leverage these insights to refine their approach, focusing on fast transitions, possession play, and wing play to enhance attacking efficiency and overall team performance.”

9. 9

   Political uncertainty and multi-scale systemic risk spillovers in the cryptocurrency market: A STVAR-based network topology approach.

   PloS one (Wang et al.)Published May 28, 2026Checked Oct 16, 2026

   “To reveal the risk characteristics at different time scales, we use wavelet packet decomposition to decompose the sequence into short-term, medium-term, and long-term components; We also use forecast error variance decomposition to quantify risk spillovers, in order to study the direction and intensity of risk spillovers between different cryptocurrencies. In terms of the responses of cryptocurrency systemic risks to political uncertainty shocks, we find significant asymmetries. The mid- and long-term risk components indicate that most cryptocurrencies exhibit a stronger response during periods of high political uncertainty than during low periods. Moreover, shocks during high political uncertainty periods enlarge the cross-cryptocurrency risk spillovers. Finally, Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero are stable risk transmitters, while Peercoin and Namecoin are more vulnerable risk receivers. This paper provides some insights into the differential impact of political uncertainty on the stability and interconnectivity of various cryptocurrencies.”

10. 10

    Narrative Research Study: Market Sentiment As A Trigger For Cryptocurrency Volatility

    SENTRALISASI (Hidayatullah & Juniar)Published Dec 7, 2024Checked Oct 16, 2026

    “The analysis employs Structural Equation Modeling - Partial Least Squares to examine the relationship between market sentiment and price volatility. The latent variable "Market Sentiment" is constructed using the NLP indicator, while "Price Volatility" is measured by daily standard deviations and the Average True Range. Additional factors, such as Layer-1, Layer-2, Decentralized Finance, Specialized Computing, Real World Assets, and Decentralized Infrastructure Projects, are also incorporated for a more comprehensive analysis. The results show that positive sentiment significantly increased price volatility, especially for speculative projects like Layer-2 and DeFi, while negative sentiment significantly reduced volatility. Neutral sentiment had no significant effect on price volatility. These findings highlight the important role of social media and news in driving sharp price movements in the cryptocurrency market, providing valuable insights for investors and policymakers in managing and responding to market sentiment.”